Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs LAA | 6.38 | 27.5% | 28.5% | 22.4% | 17.4 | 5 | 2 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TEX | 6.34 | 29.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 6 | 2 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs DET | 5.90 | 26.5% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 5 | 2 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SEA | 5.86 | 27.1% | 28.0% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 6 | 1 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs KC | 5.69 | 24.1% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 6 | 2 |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable starter
|
MIL vs BOS | 5.66 | 28.9% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 6 | 1 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs SD | 5.04 | 25.2% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 6 | 1 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 5.00 | 24.1% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 1 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs ATL | 4.66 | 22.1% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 6 | 2 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SF | 4.65 | 24.3% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 6 | 1 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs CHC | 4.49 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 6 | 1 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs LAD | 4.47 | 21.8% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 1 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs HOU | 4.34 | 21.7% | 20.2% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 6 | 1 |
Cody Bolton
Probable starter
|
HOU vs COL | 4.32 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs PHI | 4.30 | 18.0% | 18.1% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 5 | 1 |
Brayan Bello
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIL | 4.27 | 17.5% | 14.4% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 6 | 1 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs STL | 4.05 | 19.0% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 0 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CIN | 3.93 | 18.9% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 6 | 1 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
CHC vs TB | 3.86 | 18.8% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 6 | 1 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs TOR | 3.80 | 20.3% | 15.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Williamson
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIA | 3.75 | 20.7% | 21.5% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 6 | 1 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs CLE | 3.62 | 19.2% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs WSH | 3.42 | 17.1% | 14.2% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 6 | 1 |
Grant Taylor
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BAL | 3.10 | 23.1% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 11.4 | 3 | 2 |
Germán Márquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs PIT | 3.01 | 15.8% | 11.2% | 22.4% | 14.2 | 6 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.