Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs LAD | 6.79 | 28.1% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 5 | 1 |
Cole Ragans
Probable starter
|
KC vs CLE | 6.47 | 31.1% | 36.0% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 6 | 2 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SEA | 6.37 | 28.2% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 5 | 2 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIL | 6.11 | 24.6% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 5 | 1 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CWS | 5.95 | 28.7% | 33.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 5 | 1 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SF | 5.85 | 25.7% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 5 | 1 |
Joe Boyle
Probable starter
|
TB vs CHC | 5.70 | 26.3% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 5 | 1 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs KC | 5.58 | 25.1% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 1 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TEX | 5.54 | 25.0% | 32.1% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 5 | 1 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs ATH | 5.46 | 24.2% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 5 | 1 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 5.29 | 22.4% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 5 | 2 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CIN | 5.21 | 25.0% | 33.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 5 | 1 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs PIT | 4.96 | 24.7% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 5 | 2 |
Shohei Ohtani
Probable starter
|
LAD vs TOR | 4.94 | 27.8% | 32.1% | 22.4% | 13.0 | 8 | 1 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIA | 4.86 | 22.5% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 5 | 1 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs SD | 4.86 | 19.8% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 5 | 1 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs ATL | 4.77 | 20.8% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 5 | 1 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs LAA | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 5 | 2 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
NYM vs AZ | 4.69 | 20.8% | 19.1% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 6 | 1 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs DET | 4.61 | 19.9% | 19.9% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 5 | 2 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs HOU | 4.52 | 18.6% | 19.6% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 5 | 1 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs BOS | 4.32 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs PHI | 4.25 | 19.8% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 5 | 1 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BAL | 4.22 | 21.7% | 25.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Luis Severino
Probable starter
|
ATH vs NYY | 4.21 | 20.9% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 7 | 2 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs NYM | 4.01 | 20.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 6 | 2 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs TB | 3.90 | 20.1% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Cristian Javier
Probable starter
|
HOU vs COL | 3.84 | 19.6% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 5 | 1 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs STL | 3.81 | 16.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 5 | 1 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs WSH | 3.58 | 18.0% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 5 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.