Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs NYM | 6.14 | 23.9% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 17.4 | 5 | 2 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs TEX | 5.92 | 30.8% | 36.7% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 6 | 1 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs MIA | 5.79 | 22.5% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 5 | 2 |
Jack Leiter
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CIN | 5.40 | 23.8% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 6 | 1 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAA | 5.30 | 24.0% | 26.9% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 6 | 1 |
Edward Cabrera
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CLE | 5.20 | 25.0% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 6 | 1 |
Kodai Senga
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SF | 5.13 | 25.2% | 25.4% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 5 | 1 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs SD | 5.12 | 21.8% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 6 | 1 |
Kris Bubic
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIL | 5.06 | 22.9% | 19.4% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 6 | 1 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs ATL | 4.98 | 19.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 5 | 1 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CHC | 4.94 | 22.9% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 6 | 1 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 4.93 | 21.2% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 6 | 1 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CWS | 4.80 | 26.2% | 23.8% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 7 | 1 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs KC | 4.80 | 25.1% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 6 | 1 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CHC | 4.77 | 20.5% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 7 | 1 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CLE | 4.74 | 23.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 7 | 1 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs PIT | 4.69 | 20.5% | 19.6% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 6 | 1 |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable starter
|
MIN vs TB | 4.67 | 20.6% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 6 | 1 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs LAD | 4.64 | 22.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 1 |
Lance McCullers Jr.
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 4.57 | 25.2% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 6 | 1 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TOR | 4.44 | 20.5% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 6 | 1 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs BAL | 4.40 | 21.8% | 21.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 6 | 1 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SEA | 4.20 | 20.1% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 6 | 1 |
Chris Paddack
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYY | 3.81 | 20.1% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 6 | 1 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs MIN | 3.76 | 18.0% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 6 | 1 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs AZ | 3.62 | 19.8% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs STL | 3.58 | 19.7% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs PHI | 3.51 | 17.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 1 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs BOS | 3.50 | 17.8% | 15.4% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 6 | 1 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs WSH | 3.46 | 19.2% | 16.3% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 6 | 1 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs DET | 3.37 | 18.5% | 14.6% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 6 | 1 |
Taijuan Walker
Probable starter
|
PHI vs COL | 3.06 | 15.0% | 10.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 6 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.