Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Edward Cabrera

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 217 lb · Age 28

Cards
17
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024484.952020096.11071.37
2025873.5326260137.21501.23
2026555.961815080.0711.49
6 Seasons30344.361071020511.25491.34
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.90
ERA current pace5.75
ERA rolling p505.04
Observed weight62%
ERA
3.96 4.47 5.04 5.61 6.13
FIP
4.16 4.63 5.15 5.67 6.14
K%
19.4% 20.6% 21.9% 23.3% 24.5%
BB%
8.1% 8.8% 9.6% 10.4% 11.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.59
12
ERA5.75
14
BB%10.0%
38
K%19.9%
35 -37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.352
13 -35 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.4%
2 -35 vs proj
Fastball velo96.5
82
Hard-hit allowed46.1%
5
Whiff%23.2%
56 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+107
87
Curveball Stuff+101
29
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Sinker Stuff+103
52
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+101
39
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cabrera, Edward · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.352 2026-09-12: 0.3442026-09-13: 0.3442026-09-14: 0.3442026-09-18: 0.3472026-09-19: 0.3472026-09-20: 0.3472026-09-21: 0.3482026-09-22: 0.3482026-09-23: 0.3522026-09-24: 0.3522026-09-25: 0.3522026-09-26: 0.352 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cabrera, Edward · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cabrera, Edward · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 30.8%Sinker: 21.5%Curveball: 18.9%4-Seam Fastball: 17.3%Slider: 11.6% CH31% · 93 mphprimary pitch CH 31%SI 21%CU 19%FF 17%SL 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cabrera, Edward · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 31% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 93.1 mphCH93 mphSinker: 21% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.7 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 84.9 mphCU85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSlider: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.2 mphSL89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 32.2% 343 107 qualified
SI 19.7% 210 103 qualified
CB 19.2% 204 101 qualified
FB 16.7% 178 100 limited sample
SL 12.1% 129 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 5"
Weight217 lb
Debut2021-08-25
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.98
K% Δ-0.053

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.426
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.352

Cabrera’s wOBA-against sits at 0.426, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.352 — a gap of 0.074, 2.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 85 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching172026-08-16Changeup played up through CH/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.2% K | 3.77 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs MIL1 ER / 2 K3.0 IP
2026-04-17 vs NYM3 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs PIT3 ER / 4 K5.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ CLE0 ER / 4 K5.2 IP
2026-03-30 vs LAA0 ER / 5 K6.0 IP