Mithrandir Metrics
Player Texas Rangers Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Texas Rangers

Jack Leiter

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 205 lb · Age 26

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Texas Rangers Position P Roster Injured 15-Day Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024038.8396035.2311.71
202510103.8629290151.21481.28
2026375.291515080.0831.44
3 Seasons13204.9553500267.12621.38
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal7 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace5.29
ERA rolling p504.76
Observed weight61%
ERA
3.70 4.21 4.76 5.32 5.83
FIP
3.31 3.81 4.37 4.93 5.43
K%
21.1% 22.5% 24.0% 25.5% 26.9%
BB%
7.5% 8.3% 9.1% 9.9% 10.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
35
ERA5.29
19
BB%9.5%
38
K%24.1%
62
xwOBA allowed0.337
27 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.2%
10 -32 vs proj
Fastball velo96.6
81
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
36
Whiff%24.2%
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+100
35
Fastball Stuff+110
93
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Slider Stuff+105
72
Curveball Stuff+102
41
Cutter Stuff+98
14
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Leiter, Jack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.337 2026-07-05: 0.3372026-07-06: 0.3372026-07-07: 0.3372026-07-08: 0.3372026-07-09: 0.3372026-07-10: 0.3372026-07-11: 0.3372026-07-12: 0.3372026-07-13: 0.3372026-07-14: 0.3372026-07-15: 0.3372026-07-16: 0.337 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Leiter, Jack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leiter, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.1%Slider: 18.2%Changeup: 17.6%Cutter: 9.7%Curveball: 8.7%Sinker: 7.6% FF38% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 38%SL 18%CH 18%FC 10%CU 9%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leiter, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphSlider: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.5 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.0 mphCH90 mphCutter: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.0 mphFC93 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.8 mphCU82 mphSinker: 8% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.3% 460 110 qualified
CH 17.9% 215 100 qualified
SL 17.8% 214 105 qualified
FC 10.1% 121 98 limited sample
CB 8.4% 101 102 limited sample
SI 7.6% 91 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 1"
Weight205 lb
Debut2024-04-18
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.37
K% Δ+0.004

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.351
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.337

Leiter’s wOBA-against sits at 0.351, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.337 — a gap of 0.014, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 84 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching152026-05-26Four-Seam Fastball played up through SL/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.8% K | 3.92 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ COL4 ER / 5 K5.0 IP
2026-04-11 @ LAD5 ER / 4 K3.2 IP
2026-04-05 vs CIN1 ER / 9 K5.0 IP
2026-03-30 @ BAL2 ER / 8 K6.0 IP