Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Diego Padres Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Diego Padres

Walker Buehler

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 185 lb · Age 31

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club San Diego Padres Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024165.381616075.1641.55
20251074.9326240126.0921.52
2026555.361919089.0811.44
9 Seasons62343.691761650928.29271.18
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal7 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.56
ERA current pace5.36
ERA rolling p505.07
Observed weight64%
ERA
3.89 4.45 5.07 5.69 6.25
FIP
3.89 4.27 4.70 5.12 5.50
K%
17.7% 18.8% 20.1% 21.3% 22.5%
BB%
7.3% 8.0% 8.7% 9.5% 10.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.52
16
ERA5.36
18
BB%8.8%
47
K%21.1%
40 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.327
37
Barrel allowed8.8%
34
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed41.7%
32
Whiff%19.8%
24
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Cutter Stuff+102
53
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+97
22
Changeup Stuff+94
9
Curveball Stuff+100
24
Sinker Stuff+101
36
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Buehler, Walker · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.327 2026-07-05: 0.3242026-07-06: 0.3242026-07-07: 0.3242026-07-08: 0.3242026-07-09: 0.3242026-07-10: 0.3262026-07-11: 0.3262026-07-12: 0.3262026-07-13: 0.3272026-07-14: 0.3272026-07-15: 0.3272026-07-16: 0.327 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Buehler, Walker · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Buehler, Walker · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 22.9%4-Seam Fastball: 21.3%Sinker: 16.2%Knuckle Curve: 11.0%Slider: 10.4%Changeup: 10.3% FC23% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 23%FF 21%SI 16%KC 11%SL 10%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Buehler, Walker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.1 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphSinker: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphKnuckle Curve: 11% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 77.9 mphKC78 mphSlider: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.0 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 82.6 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 23.1% 257 102 qualified
FB 20.4% 227 102 qualified
SL 18.4% 205 97 qualified
SI 16.4% 183 101 limited sample
CB 11.8% 132 100 limited sample
CH 9.9% 110 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 2"
Weight185 lb
Debut2017-09-07
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.44
K% Δ+0.042

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.396
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.327

Buehler’s wOBA-against sits at 0.396, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.327 — a gap of 0.069, 2.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 96 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-07-11Cutter played up through FC/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202616.9% K | 4.92 ERAProjection
2026-04-05 @ BOS4 ER / 4 K2.2 IP
2026-03-30 vs SF3 ER / 3 K4.0 IP