Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs COL | 6.07 | 26.0% | 29.8% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 6 | 1 |
Jack Flaherty
Probable starter
|
DET vs STL | 5.88 | 27.0% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Connelly Early
Probable starter
|
BOS vs SD | 5.65 | 27.3% | 32.1% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 6 | 1 |
Tyler Glasnow
Probable starter
|
LAD vs WSH | 5.60 | 27.6% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs ATL | 5.18 | 26.3% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 5 | 1 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs MIA | 4.85 | 24.1% | 22.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 5 | 1 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CHC | 4.84 | 20.5% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 6 | 1 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CLE | 4.81 | 23.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 6 | 1 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs NYM | 4.80 | 23.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 5 | 1 |
Luinder Avila
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIL | 4.69 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs LAD | 4.66 | 20.4% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 1 |
Luis Morales
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 4.65 | 22.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 6 | 1 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs PIT | 4.65 | 22.8% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 6 | 1 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs AZ | 4.63 | 20.4% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 5 | 1 |
Max Meyer
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYY | 4.56 | 22.2% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 6 | 1 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIL | 4.56 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 6 | 1 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs DET | 4.38 | 20.3% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 6 | 1 |
Mason Fluharty
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CWS | 4.32 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Chad Patrick
Probable starter
|
MIL vs KC | 4.31 | 24.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs TEX | 4.22 | 22.4% | 19.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 1 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CIN | 4.13 | 21.0% | 19.1% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 0 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAA | 4.01 | 22.3% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 6 | 1 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 4.00 | 22.5% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 6 | 1 |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable starter
|
PIT vs BAL | 3.94 | 22.5% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 13.6 | 6 | 1 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SF | 3.90 | 19.4% | 19.2% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 5 | 1 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs KC | 3.86 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 6 | 1 |
Mick Abel
Probable starter
|
MIN vs TB | 3.83 | 21.9% | 21.5% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 0 |
Steven Matz
Probable starter
|
TB vs MIN | 3.81 | 20.7% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 6 | 1 |
Grant Taylor
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TOR | 3.46 | 22.8% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 12.3 | 3 | 1 |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SEA | 3.12 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 6 | 1 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs BOS | 2.60 | 15.6% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.