Mithrandir Metrics
Player New York Mets Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / New York Mets

Kodai Senga

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 202 lb · Age 33

Cards
11
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club New York Mets Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024103.381105.190.56
2025763.0222220113.11091.31
2026078.69117039.1471.75
4 Seasons20203.6963590324.13671.31
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.98
ERA current pace8.70
ERA rolling p506.12
Observed weight45%
ERA
5.00 5.53 6.12 6.71 7.24
FIP
4.22 4.71 5.24 5.78 6.27
K%
20.9% 22.6% 24.4% 26.3% 27.9%
BB%
9.7% 10.7% 11.8% 12.9% 13.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.71
6
ERA8.70
1
BB%14.0%
8 -21 vs proj
K%25.5%
71
xwOBA allowed0.348
17 -26 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.6%
5 -40 vs proj
Fastball velo95.4
66
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
52
Whiff%25.5%
71
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Cutter Stuff+102
57
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+99
28
Sinker Stuff+87
1
Slider Stuff+104
63
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Senga, Kodai · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.348 2026-07-06: 0.3402026-07-07: 0.3402026-07-08: 0.3402026-07-09: 0.3532026-07-10: 0.3532026-07-11: 0.3532026-07-12: 0.3482026-07-13: 0.3482026-07-14: 0.3482026-07-15: 0.3482026-07-16: 0.3482026-07-17: 0.348 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Senga, Kodai · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 41%41%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senga, Kodai · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.9%Forkball: 22.9%Cutter: 19.7%Sweeper: 9.1%Slider: 6.8%Sinker: 4.1% FF37% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 37%FO 23%FC 20%ST 9%SL 7%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senga, Kodai · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphForkball: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.1 mphFO83 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.5 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 80.7 mphST81 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphSinker: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.5 mphSI89 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 75″ drop, 66.4 mphCU66 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.1% 138 100 limited sample
FC 29.2% 82 102 limited sample
SL 15.7% 44 104 limited sample
SI 5.7% 16 87 limited sample
CB 0.4% 1 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 1"
Weight202 lb
Debut2023-04-02
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+4.74
K% Δ+0.014

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.419
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.348

Senga’s wOBA-against sits at 0.419, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.348 — a gap of 0.071, 2.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 43 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching112026-06-234-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.1% K | 3.96 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ CHC6 ER / 3 K3.1 IP
2026-04-11 vs ATH7 ER / 3 K2.1 IP
2026-04-05 @ SF2 ER / 7 K5.2 IP
2026-03-31 @ STL2 ER / 9 K6.0 IP