Mithrandir Metrics
Player New York Mets Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / New York Mets

Kodai Senga

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 202 lb · Age 33

Cards
12
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club New York Mets Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024103.381105.190.56
2025763.0222220113.11091.31
2026097.34318861.1751.65
4 Seasons20223.7783608346.13951.32
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
23
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal5 metrics
28
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.98
ERA current pace7.05
ERA rolling p505.68
Observed weight56%
ERA
4.56 5.09 5.68 6.27 6.81
FIP
3.93 4.42 4.96 5.50 5.98
K%
22.0% 23.5% 25.1% 26.7% 28.1%
BB%
10.3% 11.2% 12.2% 13.2% 14.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.62
10
ERA7.05
3
BB%14.0%
7 -23 vs proj
K%26.3%
79
xwOBA allowed0.351
14 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.2%
2 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.8
73
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
42
Whiff%26.3%
77 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+102
51
Mithrandir Stuff+99
24
Cutter Stuff+99
28
Sinker Stuff+89
4
Slider Stuff+99
31
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Senga, Kodai · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.351 2026-09-12: 0.3442026-09-13: 0.3442026-09-14: 0.3442026-09-18: 0.3462026-09-19: 0.3462026-09-20: 0.3462026-09-21: 0.3532026-09-22: 0.3532026-09-23: 0.3512026-09-24: 0.3512026-09-25: 0.3512026-09-26: 0.351 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Senga, Kodai · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senga, Kodai · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.7%Forkball: 26.2%Cutter: 13.3%Sweeper: 8.7%Slider: 6.3%Sinker: 3.4% FF42% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 42%FO 26%FC 13%ST 9%SL 6%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senga, Kodai · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphForkball: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.2 mphFO83 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 81.5 mphST82 mphSlider: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mphSinker: 3% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.9 mphSI90 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 75″ drop, 66.4 mphCU66 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 61.7% 291 102 qualified
FC 20.1% 95 99 limited sample
SL 12.9% 61 99 limited sample
SI 5.1% 24 89 limited sample
CB 0.2% 1 84 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 1"
Weight202 lb
Debut2023-04-02
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+3.09
K% Δ+0.022

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.388
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.351

Senga’s wOBA-against sits at 0.388, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.351 — a gap of 0.038, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 65 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching122026-07-31Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/FO tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.1% K | 3.96 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ CHC6 ER / 3 K3.1 IP
2026-04-11 vs ATH7 ER / 3 K2.1 IP
2026-04-05 @ SF2 ER / 7 K5.2 IP
2026-03-31 @ STL2 ER / 9 K6.0 IP