Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cincinnati Reds Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds

Chase Burns

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 23

Cards
31
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cincinnati Reds Position P Roster Current MLB team Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025034.57138043.1671.32
20261532.8629290154.11851.17
2 Seasons1563.2342370197.22521.20
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
78
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.18
ERA current pace2.86
ERA rolling p503.21
Observed weight73%
ERA
1.74 2.44 3.21 3.99 4.69
FIP
2.38 2.81 3.29 3.77 4.20
K%
27.7% 28.9% 30.2% 31.6% 32.8%
BB%
7.3% 7.9% 8.5% 9.2% 9.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
75
ERA2.86
85
BB%8.6%
53
K%29.4%
90
xwOBA allowed0.279
85
Barrel allowed8.8%
28 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo97.7
92
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
44
Whiff%29.3%
91
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+112
99
Mithrandir Stuff+109
96
Slider Stuff+102
50
Changeup Stuff+98
23
Sinker Stuff+107
86
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burns, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.279 2026-09-12: 0.2762026-09-13: 0.2762026-09-14: 0.2772026-09-18: 0.2772026-09-19: 0.2792026-09-20: 0.2792026-09-21: 0.2792026-09-22: 0.2792026-09-23: 0.2792026-09-24: 0.2792026-09-25: 0.2792026-09-26: 0.279 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burns, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burns, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 55.5%Slider: 38.6%Changeup: 5.2%Sinker: 0.4%Curveball: 0.2% FF56% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 56%SL 39%CH 5%SI 0%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burns, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 56% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 97.7 mphFF98 mphSlider: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 90.3 mphSL90 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mphSinker: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.1 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.5 mphCU84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 55.3% 997 112 qualified
SL 38.3% 690 102 qualified
CH 5.7% 102 98 limited sample
SI 0.7% 12 107 limited sample
CB 0.1% 1 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age23
Height6' 3"
Weight210 lb
Debut2025-06-24
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.00
K% Δ-0.009

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.315
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.279

Burns’s wOBA-against sits at 0.315, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.279 — a gap of 0.036, 1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 158 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching312026-09-18Slider played up through SL/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202630.3% K | 3.86 ERAProjection
2026-04-05 @ TEX1 ER / 9 K6.0 IP
2026-03-30 vs PIT0 ER / 7 K5.0 IP