Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cincinnati Reds Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds

Chase Burns

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 23

Cards
20
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cincinnati Reds Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025034.57138043.1671.32
20261112.5418180102.21181.11
2 Seasons1143.1431260146.01851.17
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
77
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal4 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.18
ERA current pace2.54
ERA rolling p503.12
Observed weight65%
ERA
1.72 2.38 3.12 3.85 4.51
FIP
2.53 2.94 3.39 3.84 4.25
K%
27.0% 28.4% 30.0% 31.6% 33.1%
BB%
7.0% 7.7% 8.5% 9.3% 10.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
77
ERA2.54
87
BB%8.6%
50
K%28.7%
88
xwOBA allowed0.277
85 +15 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.1%
19 -31 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed39.0%
50
Whiff%28.8%
88
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+110
95
Mithrandir Stuff+109
96
Slider Stuff+104
67
Changeup Stuff+99
25
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burns, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.277 2026-07-05: 0.2722026-07-06: 0.2722026-07-07: 0.2722026-07-08: 0.2722026-07-09: 0.2722026-07-10: 0.2772026-07-11: 0.2772026-07-12: 0.2772026-07-13: 0.2772026-07-14: 0.2772026-07-15: 0.2772026-07-16: 0.277 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burns, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burns, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.2%Slider: 36.9%Changeup: 5.6%Curveball: 0.3% FF57% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 57%SL 37%CH 6%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burns, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 57% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 97.8 mphFF98 mphSlider: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 90.6 mphSL91 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.5 mphCU84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 57.5% 627 110 qualified
SL 35.9% 391 104 qualified
CH 6.5% 71 99 limited sample
CB 0.1% 1 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age23
Height6' 3"
Weight210 lb
Debut2025-06-24
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.32
K% Δ-0.016

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.318
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.277

Burns’s wOBA-against sits at 0.318, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.277 — a gap of 0.041, 1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 108 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching202026-07-08Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202630.3% K | 3.86 ERAProjection
2026-04-05 @ TEX1 ER / 9 K6.0 IP
2026-03-30 vs PIT0 ER / 7 K5.0 IP