Mithrandir Metrics
Player Seattle Mariners Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Seattle Mariners

Luis Castillo

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 200 lb · Age 33

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Seattle Mariners Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
202411123.6430300175.11751.17
20251183.5432320180.21621.18
2026384.931815087.2811.37
10 Seasons87923.6326125801498.115741.19
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace4.93
ERA rolling p504.54
Observed weight64%
ERA
3.49 3.99 4.54 5.09 5.59
FIP
3.50 3.81 4.16 4.51 4.82
K%
18.3% 19.5% 20.8% 22.2% 23.4%
BB%
5.5% 6.1% 6.8% 7.4% 8.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
39
ERA4.93
27
BB%7.0%
76
K%20.3%
35
xwOBA allowed0.328
35
Barrel allowed9.6%
24
Fastball velo95.3
65
Hard-hit allowed45.0%
13
Whiff%20.6%
31
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+102
43
Mithrandir Stuff+105
72
Sinker Stuff+106
85
Slider Stuff+105
74
Changeup Stuff+107
81
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Castillo, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.328 2026-07-05: 0.3292026-07-06: 0.3292026-07-07: 0.3292026-07-08: 0.3292026-07-09: 0.3292026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3292026-07-12: 0.3282026-07-13: 0.3282026-07-14: 0.3282026-07-15: 0.3282026-07-16: 0.328 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Castillo, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Castillo, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.6%Slider: 27.1%Sinker: 16.4%Changeup: 12.5%Cutter: 0.3%Pitch Out: 0.1% FF44% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 44%SL 27%SI 16%CH 12%FC 0%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Castillo, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphSlider: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mphSinker: 16% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 95.4 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.5 mphCH87 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 89.4 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.5% 545 102 qualified
SL 25.5% 313 105 qualified
SI 16.7% 205 106 qualified
CH 13.2% 162 107 limited sample
FC 0.1% 1 112 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 2"
Weight200 lb
Debut2017-06-23
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.00
K% Δ-0.004

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.385
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.328

Castillo’s wOBA-against sits at 0.385, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.328 — a gap of 0.057, 2.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 95 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-07-10Four-Seam Fastball played up through SL/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.7% K | 3.93 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 vs HOU7 ER / 3 K3.1 IP
2026-04-05 @ LAA3 ER / 4 K3.2 IP
2026-03-30 vs NYY0 ER / 7 K6.0 IP