Mithrandir Metrics
Player Tampa Bay Rays Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays

Nick Martinez

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 200 lb · Age 36

Cards
29
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Tampa Bay Rays Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241073.1042160142.11161.03
202511144.4540260165.21161.21
20261552.9430300177.11081.07
9 Seasons63643.9631015991117.17781.26
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal7 metrics
69
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.31
ERA current pace2.94
ERA rolling p503.27
Observed weight76%
ERA
2.20 2.71 3.27 3.83 4.34
FIP
3.71 4.02 4.36 4.70 5.00
K%
14.0% 14.8% 15.6% 16.5% 17.3%
BB%
3.6% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 5.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
77
ERA2.94
84
BB%3.7%
100
K%14.5%
5
xwOBA allowed0.305
61 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
59 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo92.4
20
Hard-hit allowed33.3%
86
Whiff%15.6%
4 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+101
43
Cutter Stuff+105
84
Fastball Stuff+104
67
Mithrandir Stuff+105
77
Sinker Stuff+107
84
Curveball Stuff+104
78
Slider Stuff+102
53
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Martinez, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.305 2026-09-12: 0.3112026-09-13: 0.3112026-09-14: 0.3112026-09-18: 0.3092026-09-19: 0.3092026-09-20: 0.3092026-09-21: 0.3092026-09-22: 0.3092026-09-23: 0.3052026-09-24: 0.3052026-09-25: 0.3052026-09-26: 0.305 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Martinez, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martinez, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 31.1%Changeup: 25.8%Cutter: 21.7%4-Seam Fastball: 13.0%Curveball: 4.3%Slider: 4.0% SI31% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 31%CH 26%FC 22%FF 13%CU 4%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martinez, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.4 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 78.2 mphCH78 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.7 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 79.9 mphCU80 mphSlider: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.1 mphSL85 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.2 mphPO93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 30.8% 520 107 qualified
CH 26.4% 446 101 qualified
FC 21.7% 366 105 qualified
FB 13.0% 220 104 qualified
CB 4.3% 73 104 limited sample
SL 3.8% 64 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 1"
Weight200 lb
Debut2014-04-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.51
K% Δ-0.025

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.332
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.305

Martinez’s wOBA-against sits at 0.332, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.305 — a gap of 0.027, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 183 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching292026-09-22Run prevention outpaced the underlying contact signals
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202617.0% K | 4.45 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ PIT2 ER / 3 K5.1 IP
2026-04-11 vs NYY1 ER / 4 K4.2 IP
2026-04-05 @ MIN1 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-03-30 @ MIL2 ER / 3 K6.0 IP