Mithrandir Metrics
Player Tampa Bay Rays Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays

Nick Martinez

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 200 lb · Age 35

Cards
18
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Tampa Bay Rays Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241073.1042160142.11161.03
202511144.4540260165.21161.21
2026822.6518180105.1621.12
9 Seasons56614.0029814791045.17321.28
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal7 metrics
69
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.31
ERA current pace2.65
ERA rolling p503.21
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.20 2.68 3.21 3.73 4.21
FIP
3.84 4.12 4.44 4.76 5.04
K%
13.2% 14.2% 15.3% 16.4% 17.3%
BB%
4.2% 4.7% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
56
ERA2.65
84
BB%4.6%
97
K%13.3%
3
xwOBA allowed0.333
30
Barrel allowed7.5%
54
Fastball velo92.6
22
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
Whiff%15.7%
3
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+100
37
Cutter Stuff+106
91
Mithrandir Stuff+105
72
Sinker Stuff+106
82
Curveball Stuff+103
69
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Slider Stuff+105
71
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Martinez, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.333 2026-07-06: 0.3332026-07-07: 0.3332026-07-08: 0.3332026-07-09: 0.3332026-07-10: 0.3332026-07-11: 0.3332026-07-12: 0.3332026-07-13: 0.3332026-07-14: 0.3332026-07-15: 0.3332026-07-16: 0.3332026-07-17: 0.333 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Martinez, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martinez, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 29.6%Changeup: 27.7%Cutter: 20.4%4-Seam Fastball: 12.0%Curveball: 6.7%Slider: 3.4% SI30% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 30%CH 28%FC 20%FF 12%CU 7%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martinez, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.5 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 28% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 78.4 mphCH78 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 89.2 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 79.9 mphCU80 mphSlider: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.8 mphSL86 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.2 mphPO93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 29.8% 303 106 qualified
CH 28.5% 290 100 qualified
FC 20.2% 206 106 qualified
FB 11.3% 115 104 limited sample
CB 7.1% 72 103 limited sample
SL 3.1% 32 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 1"
Weight200 lb
Debut2014-04-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.80
K% Δ-0.037

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.368
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.333

Martinez’s wOBA-against sits at 0.368, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.333 — a gap of 0.035, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 111 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching182026-07-10Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202617.0% K | 4.45 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ PIT2 ER / 3 K5.1 IP
2026-04-11 vs NYY1 ER / 4 K4.2 IP
2026-04-05 @ MIN1 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-03-30 @ MIL2 ER / 3 K6.0 IP