The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 264 qualified hitters (202+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Judge, Aaron in signal, the comp in amber.
NYY · bats R · 270 PA
Ranked comps for Judge, Aaron
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Ohtani, Shohei LAD · L · 417 PA | 0.67 | Fly-ball rateAvg exit velocityMax exit velocity | Sweet-spot rate +1.6zPull rate +0.9zStrikeout rate -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Kurtz, Nick ATH · L · 430 PA | 0.66 | Sprint speedMax exit velocityHard-hit rate | Sweet-spot rate +1.2zIsolated power -1.1zBarrel rate -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Bauers, Jake MIL · L · 365 PA | 0.63 | Fly-ball rateBat speedSprint speed | xwOBA on contact -1.7zWhiff rate -1.0zIn-zone contact +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Wood, James WSH · L · 481 PA | 0.53 | Barrel rateMax exit velocityBat speed | Sweet-spot rate +2.1zPull rate -1.7zSwing length -1.5z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Murakami, Munetaka CWS · L · 277 PA | 0.46 | Hard-hit rateAvg exit velocityIsolated power | In-zone contact -2.3zFly-ball rate +1.6zWhiff rate +1.5z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Alonso, Pete BAL · R · 442 PA | 0.46 | Fly-ball rateAvg exit velocityChase rate | Swing length -2.0zxwOBA on contact -1.4zBarrel rate -1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Schwarber, Kyle PHI · L · 425 PA | 0.42 | Bat speedChase ratexwOBA on contact | Oppo rate -2.0zSweet-spot rate +1.8zPull rate +1.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Contreras, Willson BOS · R · 381 PA | 0.42 | Bat speedSweet-spot rateGround-ball rate | Walk rate -2.1zAvg exit velocity -1.4zHard-hit rate -1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Cruz, Oneil PIT · L · 300 PA | 0.41 | Pull rateSweet-spot rateHard-hit rate | Walk rate -1.7zIsolated power -1.5zGround-ball rate +1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R · 395 PA | 0.41 | Fly-ball rateWhiff rateGround-ball rate | Walk rate -2.0zxwOBA on contact -1.9zHard-hit rate -1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Trout, Mike LAA · R · 372 PA | 0.40 | Oppo rateBat speedFly-ball rate | In-zone contact +1.9zWhiff rate -1.7zSprint speed +1.5z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | De La Cruz, Elly CIN · L · 363 PA | 0.40 | Strikeout rateAvg exit velocityChase rate | Swing length -2.3zWalk rate -2.0zGround-ball rate +1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.