Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026

Cruz, Oneil

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.334 xwOBA
Range
0.296 to 0.372
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced regular Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.335
xwOBA current pace0.346
xwOBA rolling p500.341
Observed weight56%
xwOBA
0.315 0.327 0.341 0.355 0.368
wOBA
0.348 0.366 0.386 0.405 0.423
ISO
0.172 0.187 0.202 0.218 0.232
K%
28.9% 30.4% 32.1% 33.8% 35.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.0%
52 -16 vs proj
Barrel%9.4%
91
Bat speed76.6
99
Exit velocity96.3
100
Hard-hit%61.2%
100
K%34.5%
3
xBA0.406
97
xSLG0.794
98
xwOBA0.346
79
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · CF
52
Arm Strength101.9 · CF
98
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
8
Range Runs-3.0 · CF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.1 · CF
93
Bolts6.0 · CF
62
SB Success Rate82.4% · CF
55
Sprint Speed28.2 · CF
75
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7% · rebadged research
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
43
Correct Decisions63.9% · rebadged research
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · borderline
11
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
61
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.363 · insufficient sample
6
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
27
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
72
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Cruz, Oneil · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3482026-05-19: 0.3442026-05-21: 0.3432026-05-23: 0.3352026-05-24: 0.3322026-05-25: 0.3352026-05-26: 0.3362026-05-28: 0.3352026-05-29: 0.3352026-05-30: 0.3342026-05-31: 0.3402026-06-01: 0.346 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

146 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Cruz, Oneil · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsPull 11%Center field third: 68% of plotted batted ballsCenter 68%Right field third: 21% of plotted batted ballsOppo 21% LF 325 CF 399 RF 320 2026-03-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 113.2 / LA 9.02026-03-18 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 29.02026-03-20 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -13.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 52.02026-03-21 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 35.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.6 / LA 28.02026-03-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 113.6 / LA -15.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.2 / LA 52.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA -7.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -13.02026-03-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -32.02026-03-26 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 75.2 / LA 24.02026-03-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 10.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA -15.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 5.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 57.2 / LA 58.02026-03-31 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 34.02026-03-31 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 13.02026-03-31 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 111.1 / LA 24.02026-04-01 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 28.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.3 / LA 20.02026-04-01 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -22.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 0.02026-04-03 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.9 / LA -18.02026-04-03 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA -9.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 37.02026-04-04 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 31.02026-04-04 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 81.1 / LA 25.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 2.02026-04-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 111.8 / LA -7.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -14.02026-04-05 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 23.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 53.7 / LA -56.02026-04-06 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -6.02026-04-06 · double play · CH · line_drive · EV 87.4 / LA 12.02026-04-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 112.4 / LA -3.02026-04-07 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA -2.02026-04-07 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 69.1 / LA 4.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 37.02026-04-08 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 45.02026-04-08 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 114.6 / LA 17.02026-04-08 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 110.6 / LA -18.02026-04-10 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 8.02026-04-11 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 115.4 / LA -2.02026-04-11 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.5 / LA 8.02026-04-11 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 113.1 / LA 10.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 26.02026-04-11 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 114.9 / LA 13.02026-04-12 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 111.0 / LA 41.02026-04-13 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 114.1 / LA 18.02026-04-13 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.9 / LA 9.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -26.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.1 / LA 2.02026-04-14 · fielders choice · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -10.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 48.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 114.9 / LA -12.02026-04-16 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 119.0 / LA 11.02026-04-16 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 50.02026-04-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 3.02026-04-16 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA -38.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 44.02026-04-17 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 23.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -27.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA -7.02026-04-18 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 18.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 18.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 41.02026-04-21 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 12.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.8 / LA -26.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 110.6 / LA 34.02026-04-22 · field error · ST · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -24.02026-04-23 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 107.5 / LA 22.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -7.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 62.2 / LA 63.02026-04-24 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -5.02026-04-24 · fielders choice · CU · ground_ball · EV 68.2 / LA -30.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 113.6 / LA 13.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 67.3 / LA -29.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 54.02026-04-28 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 28.02026-04-28 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 73.9 / LA 18.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -13.02026-04-29 · field out · SL · popup · EV 78.1 / LA 76.02026-04-29 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -35.02026-04-30 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -31.02026-04-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 13.02026-05-01 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 112.6 / LA 3.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -42.02026-05-02 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 2.02026-05-02 · field out · EP · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 19.02026-05-02 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA -7.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-05-03 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA -51.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -6.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 38.02026-05-03 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 13.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · popup · EV 70.6 / LA 46.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 1.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.4 / LA 23.02026-05-06 · fielders choice out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 0.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.3 / LA -1.02026-05-06 · double play · SV · ground_ball · EV 61.9 / LA -35.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -1.02026-05-07 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -17.02026-05-08 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 108.7 / LA 14.02026-05-08 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -33.02026-05-09 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA -6.02026-05-09 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 11.02026-05-09 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA -11.02026-05-09 · single · EP · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 6.02026-05-10 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -13.02026-05-10 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 39.02026-05-10 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 25.02026-05-12 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.1 / LA 49.02026-05-12 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 112.5 / LA 17.02026-05-12 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 111.1 / LA 21.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 2.02026-05-14 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 43.02026-05-14 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 29.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -46.02026-05-14 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA -12.02026-05-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 111.7 / LA -5.02026-05-15 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -6.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA -19.02026-05-17 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -9.02026-05-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 3.02026-05-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.6 / LA -17.02026-05-19 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 82.2 / LA 22.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.1 / LA -70.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -21.02026-05-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 107.7 / LA -11.02026-05-21 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 19.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 23.02026-05-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball2026-05-22 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.3 / LA 50.02026-05-24 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 29.02026-05-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA -25.02026-05-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 4.02026-05-25 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 45.02026-05-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.0 / LA 9.02026-05-25 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA -11.02026-05-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -16.02026-05-26 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 112.4 / LA 8.02026-05-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 113.4 / LA 6.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 92.4 / LA 25.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 86.1 / LA 18.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Cruz, Oneil · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 34.3° Length 7.8 ft Ideal path 43% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Cruz, Oneil · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 7.5° Direction -7.4° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Cruz, Oneil · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 79.0 mph Hard swing rate 80% Whiff / swing 39% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Cruz, Oneil · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 44%44%Chase: 32%32%Whiff: 35%35%Zone contact: 79%79%Contact: 65%65%Hard hit: 61%61% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.284 vs 0.238 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.013
wOBA Δ+0.052
Sample278 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances541----
Home Runs19----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3340.296 to 0.372+/- 0.038
ISO0.1880.144 to 0.254+/- 0.055
Barrel%8.6%6.4% to 10.8%+/- 2.2%
Hard-Hit%54.3%47.3% to 61.9%+/- 7.3%
K%29.7%24.2% to 35.4%+/- 5.6%
BB%10.3%7.0% to 12.9%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.2890.241 to 0.346+/- 0.053
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

418 career PA

xwOBA0.238
K%26.1%
BB%7.6%
Barrel5.0%
vs RHP

1227 career PA

xwOBA0.284
K%25.2%
BB%8.9%
Barrel8.6%