Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026

Trout, Mike

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.344 xwOBA
Range
0.293 to 0.386
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Impact slugger Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.346
xwOBA current pace0.423
xwOBA rolling p500.389
Observed weight56%
xwOBA
0.360 0.373 0.389 0.404 0.418
wOBA
0.406 0.424 0.444 0.464 0.482
ISO
0.178 0.196 0.215 0.235 0.252
K%
23.0% 24.4% 25.9% 27.4% 28.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%20.8%
100 +15 vs proj
Barrel%10.9%
96 +19 vs proj
Bat speed73.3
90
Exit velocity91.1
86
Hard-hit%50.0%
90
K%23.2%
41 +28 vs proj
xBA0.366
84
xSLG0.823
98
xwOBA0.423
100 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · CF
66
Arm Strength93.2 · CF
62
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · CF
3
Range Runs-1.7 · CF
24
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · CF
65
Bolts4.0 · CF
49
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
89
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.6% · rebadged research
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
16
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.255 · insufficient sample
97
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
41
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.388 · insufficient sample
0
Resists FastballwOBA 0.380 · validated
6
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
28
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Trout, Mike · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.4242026-05-19: 0.4222026-05-21: 0.4252026-05-23: 0.4202026-05-24: 0.4222026-05-25: 0.4172026-05-26: 0.4172026-05-28: 0.4122026-05-29: 0.4132026-05-30: 0.4202026-05-31: 0.4192026-06-01: 0.423 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

144 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Trout, Mike · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsPull 17%Center field third: 66% of plotted batted ballsCenter 66%Right field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsOppo 17% LF 347 CF 396 RF 350 2026-03-16 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.5 / LA 40.02026-03-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 60.8 / LA -21.02026-03-18 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 13.02026-03-18 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 20.02026-03-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 89.9 / LA 14.02026-03-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 15.02026-03-23 · fielders choice · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -14.02026-03-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 35.02026-03-27 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 109.7 / LA 23.02026-03-27 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA 11.02026-03-27 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.8 / LA 32.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 35.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -42.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 7.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 32.02026-03-29 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -28.02026-03-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 87.7 / LA 15.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 107.6 / LA 14.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.0 / LA 74.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 111.6 / LA 8.02026-03-31 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 70.4 / LA -17.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 28.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 32.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -12.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · popup · EV 78.7 / LA 70.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 48.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 21.02026-04-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 109.3 / LA 17.02026-04-07 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 63.02026-04-07 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA -4.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.9 / LA 49.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.7 / LA 72.02026-04-08 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA -18.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 44.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 30.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA -20.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 76.9 / LA 30.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 31.02026-04-11 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 36.02026-04-11 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.1 / LA 19.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.2 / LA 61.02026-04-12 · force out · CH · ground_ball2026-04-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 28.02026-04-12 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 4.02026-04-12 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 65.0 / LA 33.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 49.7 / LA 3.02026-04-13 · field error · ST · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 5.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 38.02026-04-13 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 26.02026-04-13 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 109.2 / LA 25.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 19.02026-04-14 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.1 / LA 35.02026-04-14 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 4.02026-04-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 6.02026-04-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 29.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 49.02026-04-16 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 56.02026-04-16 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 114.6 / LA 31.02026-04-17 · field out · KN · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -12.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 39.02026-04-18 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 62.0 / LA 37.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 29.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.3 / LA 44.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 19.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 1.02026-04-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 0.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 48.6 / LA -45.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 27.02026-04-21 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 77.8 / LA 17.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.3 / LA 6.02026-04-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 48.4 / LA -10.02026-04-22 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 113.2 / LA 24.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA -6.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · popup · EV 76.3 / LA 85.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.9 / LA -2.02026-04-26 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -23.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 27.02026-04-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 106.3 / LA 33.02026-04-26 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 32.02026-04-26 · field out · CS · fly_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 42.02026-04-27 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 19.02026-04-27 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -11.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 108.4 / LA 20.02026-04-27 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -5.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.2 / LA 18.02026-04-29 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 23.02026-05-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 85.7 / LA 13.02026-05-02 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 76.4 / LA 18.02026-05-02 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA -1.02026-05-03 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 5.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 65.6 / LA -12.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -3.02026-05-05 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 27.02026-05-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -11.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 63.2 / LA 58.02026-05-06 · single · CH · popup · EV 74.3 / LA 68.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 36.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · popup · EV 86.8 / LA 65.02026-05-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 6.02026-05-08 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 75.6 / LA 24.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.2 / LA -17.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA -8.02026-05-11 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 67.3 / LA -3.02026-05-11 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 0.02026-05-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 42.2 / LA 33.02026-05-12 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 23.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 39.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 45.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -21.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 113.1 / LA 1.02026-05-15 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 17.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 25.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 32.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 53.02026-05-17 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 17.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · popup · EV 62.2 / LA 65.02026-05-17 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 49.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 35.02026-05-18 · field out · FC · popup · EV 95.3 / LA 65.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -46.02026-05-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA 1.02026-05-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 27.02026-05-19 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA -2.02026-05-19 · field out · FC · popup · EV 78.7 / LA 64.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 96.3 / LA 73.02026-05-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA -15.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 110.5 / LA -1.02026-05-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 6.02026-05-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.7 / LA -19.02026-05-22 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 78.9 / LA 29.02026-05-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 100.9 / LA 7.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 55.02026-05-22 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.2 / LA 10.02026-05-23 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 108.9 / LA 25.02026-05-23 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 75.8 / LA 36.02026-05-23 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 55.02026-05-23 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 34.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 88.5 / LA 26.02026-05-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 68.5 / LA 17.02026-05-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA -6.02026-05-26 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 61.3 / LA 19.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.9 / LA 38.02026-05-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 10.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 30.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Trout, Mike · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 34.0° Length 7.5 ft Ideal path 44% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Trout, Mike · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 6.9° Direction -3.6° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Trout, Mike · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 75.0 mph Hard swing rate 54% Whiff / swing 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Trout, Mike · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 17%17%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 50%50% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.289 vs 0.258 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.079
wOBA Δ+0.100
Sample284 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances508----
Home Runs23----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3440.293 to 0.386+/- 0.047
ISO0.1870.117 to 0.263+/- 0.073
Barrel%7.3%4.7% to 9.5%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%46.1%40.0% to 51.9%+/- 6.0%
K%30.0%23.9% to 33.8%+/- 5.0%
BB%12.7%10.9% to 16.4%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.2890.246 to 0.325+/- 0.040
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1271 career PA

xwOBA0.258
K%24.6%
BB%9.8%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHP

3872 career PA

xwOBA0.289
K%24.6%
BB%11.6%
Barrel6.6%