Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026

Kurtz, Nick

Young power bat with breakout ceiling

Primary
0.357 xwOBA
Range
0.316 to 0.401
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Impact slugger Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
97
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
88
Defense2 metrics
19
Speed3 metrics
43
Plate skills10 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.339
xwOBA current pace0.379
xwOBA rolling p500.366
Observed weight66%
xwOBA
0.341 0.353 0.366 0.379 0.390
wOBA
0.385 0.399 0.416 0.432 0.446
ISO
0.207 0.221 0.235 0.250 0.263
K%
27.2% 28.5% 30.0% 31.4% 32.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
91
Exit velocity93.7
98
Hard-hit%59.2%
99
xBA0.409
97
xSLG0.808
99
xwOBA0.379
96
BB%17.9%
100 +17 vs proj
Bat speed76.4
99
K%31.4%
11
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
12
Range Runs-2.2 · 1B
26
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · 1B
32
SB Success Rate85.7% · 1B
67
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
29
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.1% · rebadged research
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions71.9% · rebadged research
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.339 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
11
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
24
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
31
Resists FastballwOBA 0.378 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
16
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Kurtz, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.379 2026-07-05: 0.3942026-07-06: 0.3902026-07-07: 0.3862026-07-08: 0.3862026-07-09: 0.3832026-07-10: 0.3822026-07-11: 0.3792026-07-12: 0.3792026-07-13: 0.3792026-07-14: 0.3792026-07-15: 0.3792026-07-16: 0.379 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

157 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Kurtz, Nick · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsPull 18%Center field third: 68% of plotted batted ballsCenter 68%Right field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsOppo 14% LF 325 CF 403 RF 325 2026-03-16 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 31.02026-03-17 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 91.7 / LA 13.02026-03-17 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 3.02026-03-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.3 / LA 38.02026-03-19 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -27.02026-03-19 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 110.9 / LA 13.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.0 / LA -24.02026-03-22 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA -2.02026-03-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 7.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 7.02026-03-29 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 112.5 / LA 0.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -10.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 8.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA -10.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 28.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 40.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 11.02026-04-04 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 72.6 / LA 18.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.3 / LA -19.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 36.02026-04-05 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 109.7 / LA 6.02026-04-05 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 24.02026-04-07 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 115.1 / LA 17.02026-04-07 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.8 / LA -10.02026-04-07 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 52.02026-04-08 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 13.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 9.02026-04-08 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 111.5 / LA 0.02026-04-09 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 83.2 / LA 22.02026-04-09 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 112.0 / LA 8.02026-04-10 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA -10.02026-04-11 · field out · FO · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 29.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 48.02026-04-12 · home run · CS · fly_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 28.02026-04-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 42.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 57.02026-04-14 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 110.6 / LA -1.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA -21.02026-04-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 29.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 27.02026-04-16 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 51.02026-04-16 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -12.02026-04-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 112.3 / LA 7.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 9.02026-04-18 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 115.3 / LA 22.02026-04-18 · field out · ST · popup · EV 92.9 / LA 63.02026-04-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 2.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 25.02026-04-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 77.4 / LA 33.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 107.5 / LA 17.02026-04-20 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 31.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 57.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.5 / LA -28.02026-04-21 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 114.7 / LA 17.02026-04-22 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 10.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -1.02026-04-22 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 110.6 / LA 23.02026-04-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 72.2 / LA 23.02026-04-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 115.9 / LA 23.02026-04-24 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -5.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 51.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.1 / LA -34.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 19.02026-04-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 10.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 48.3 / LA -6.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.1 / LA -14.02026-04-29 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 24.02026-04-29 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 48.5 / LA -59.02026-04-30 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 115.9 / LA 14.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 32.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · popup · EV 74.0 / LA 86.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -4.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 79.8 / LA 47.02026-05-02 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.2 / LA -3.02026-05-02 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 59.02026-05-02 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -1.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 41.02026-05-03 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 82.4 / LA 21.02026-05-05 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 102.2 / LA 11.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -3.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 60.1 / LA -54.02026-05-06 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 12.02026-05-06 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 10.02026-05-06 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 95.9 / LA 18.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 56.5 / LA -74.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 6.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA -36.02026-05-07 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 10.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 21.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 54.9 / LA 53.02026-05-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.3 / LA -51.02026-05-08 · triple · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -10.02026-05-08 · field out · CU · popup · EV 86.0 / LA 50.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA -5.02026-05-09 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 16.02026-05-09 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 108.4 / LA 20.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -7.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 87.6 / LA 23.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.9 / LA -8.02026-05-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 4.02026-05-13 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 91.8 / LA 22.02026-05-13 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 30.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA -1.02026-05-14 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 50.02026-05-14 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.8 / LA 26.02026-05-15 · home run · FC · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 23.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 16.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · popup · EV 75.6 / LA 73.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · popup · EV 85.9 / LA 67.02026-05-18 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -3.02026-05-18 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -11.02026-05-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -3.02026-05-19 · field out · CU · popup · EV 84.4 / LA 79.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 54.02026-05-19 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 111.7 / LA 2.02026-05-19 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 109.5 / LA 15.02026-05-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 114.1 / LA 7.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 52.4 / LA -64.02026-05-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -6.02026-05-21 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -9.02026-05-22 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 17.02026-05-23 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 64.0 / LA -16.02026-05-23 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 90.7 / LA 17.02026-05-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.5 / LA 13.02026-05-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 6.02026-05-24 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 37.7 / LA -12.02026-05-25 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.4 / LA -17.02026-05-25 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA -7.02026-05-26 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 21.02026-05-27 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 48.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 54.6 / LA -46.02026-05-31 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 22.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 22.02026-05-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.0 / LA -3.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 56.02026-06-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA 8.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 35.02026-06-07 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 113.9 / LA 20.02026-06-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 30.02026-06-07 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -11.02026-06-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 46.02026-06-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.7 / LA -11.02026-06-15 · home run · SL · line_drive · EV 112.0 / LA 19.02026-06-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 6.02026-06-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 0.02026-06-18 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 87.7 / LA 29.02026-06-18 · double · FS · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 46.02026-06-20 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 109.3 / LA 15.02026-06-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 23.02026-06-24 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 4.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 109.5 / LA 14.02026-06-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 7.02026-06-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 12.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 29.02026-07-01 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 15.02026-07-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 110.7 / LA 15.02026-07-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.6 / LA 11.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Kurtz, Nick · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 77.5 mph Hard swing rate 73% Whiff / swing 36% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Kurtz, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 22%22%Whiff: 33%33%Zone contact: 77%77%Contact: 67%67%Hard hit: 59%59% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.271 vs 0.204 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.022
wOBA Δ+0.058
Sample430 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances447----
Home Runs27----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3570.316 to 0.401+/- 0.043
ISO0.2390.198 to 0.327+/- 0.064
Barrel%8.6%5.9% to 10.8%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%48.1%38.9% to 52.7%+/- 6.9%
K%28.1%23.1% to 34.8%+/- 5.8%
BB%11.8%9.6% to 15.0%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.3190.286 to 0.370+/- 0.042
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

156 career PA

xwOBA0.204
K%23.2%
BB%6.6%
Barrel4.7%
vs RHP

338 career PA

xwOBA0.271
K%20.0%
BB%10.1%
Barrel7.6%