Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026

Bauers, Jake

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.308 xwOBA
Range
0.256 to 0.374
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Impact slugger Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
93
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
87
Defense4 metrics
26
Speed3 metrics
61
Plate skills10 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.301
xwOBA current pace0.366
xwOBA rolling p500.342
Observed weight62%
xwOBA
0.312 0.326 0.342 0.357 0.372
wOBA
0.392 0.408 0.425 0.443 0.458
ISO
0.198 0.215 0.232 0.250 0.266
K%
23.6% 25.2% 26.9% 28.5% 30.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.3%
93 +31 vs proj
Exit velocity92.9
96
Hard-hit%54.8%
98 +26 vs proj
xBA0.371
89
xSLG0.690
93
xwOBA0.366
92 +42 vs proj
BB%13.4%
91 +19 vs proj
Bat speed74.6
97
K%25.2%
35 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · 1B
6
Arm Strength92.6 · 1B
87
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 1B
5
Range Runs-5.4 · 1B
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · 1B
85
SB Success Rate83.3% · 1B
57
Sprint Speed27.0 · 1B
40
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.8% · rebadged research
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions69.4% · rebadged research
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline
4
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
83
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.380 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
56
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Bauers, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.366 2026-07-06: 0.3532026-07-07: 0.3572026-07-08: 0.3572026-07-09: 0.3582026-07-10: 0.3562026-07-11: 0.3592026-07-12: 0.3592026-07-13: 0.3632026-07-14: 0.3662026-07-15: 0.3662026-07-16: 0.3662026-07-17: 0.366 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jake Bauers's tools (72) outpace production (78) by -6 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-12.7° Current 33° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

157 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Bauers, Jake · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsPull 22%Center field third: 59% of plotted batted ballsCenter 59%Right field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsOppo 20% LF 344 CF 400 RF 345 2026-03-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 47.02026-03-18 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 106.7 / LA 19.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 74.4 / LA 36.02026-03-18 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 110.0 / LA 34.02026-03-20 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 35.02026-03-20 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA -9.02026-03-21 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.1 / LA 32.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.6 / LA -7.02026-03-21 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 52.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -25.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 41.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 8.02026-03-24 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 8.02026-03-24 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 34.02026-03-26 · field out · ST · popup · EV 91.9 / LA 70.02026-03-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 0.02026-03-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 44.02026-03-28 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 6.02026-03-28 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -2.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.5 / LA 23.02026-03-29 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA -7.02026-03-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -8.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 24.02026-03-30 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA -22.02026-03-31 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 36.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.0 / LA 17.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 74.0 / LA 70.02026-03-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 9.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 15.02026-04-01 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -7.02026-04-04 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -27.02026-04-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 69.3 / LA -34.02026-04-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 76.2 / LA -55.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 37.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 25.02026-04-05 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 94.0 / LA 18.02026-04-06 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA -15.02026-04-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -5.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 26.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -26.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 63.1 / LA -47.02026-04-10 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 10.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA -23.02026-04-10 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 112.4 / LA 34.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA -6.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 36.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -9.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.7 / LA 7.02026-04-12 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 48.02026-04-12 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 24.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.8 / LA -13.02026-04-14 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 27.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 50.7 / LA 0.02026-04-15 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -12.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -34.02026-04-16 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 57.2 / LA 24.02026-04-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 109.7 / LA 12.02026-04-17 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 69.9 / LA 33.02026-04-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 12.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 38.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA -5.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA -20.02026-04-18 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 21.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · popup · EV 83.3 / LA 80.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 71.0 / LA 56.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 61.02026-04-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 12.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 38.02026-04-21 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 3.02026-04-21 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 0.02026-04-21 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 103.3 / LA 17.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 50.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 33.02026-04-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -4.02026-04-24 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA -9.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA -46.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -4.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 43.02026-04-25 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.7 / LA 29.02026-04-26 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 94.1 / LA 42.02026-04-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 18.02026-04-26 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 28.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 13.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.1 / LA 0.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 5.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -2.02026-04-29 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 15.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA -9.02026-04-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 0.02026-04-30 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 31.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.2 / LA -36.02026-04-30 · field error · EP · ground_ball · EV 64.9 / LA -43.02026-05-01 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.6 / LA -8.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 39.0 / LA -65.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 42.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 33.02026-05-03 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -13.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA -14.02026-05-03 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -1.02026-05-04 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 20.02026-05-06 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA -9.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 55.9 / LA 52.02026-05-06 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 8.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 5.02026-05-09 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 28.02026-05-12 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -15.02026-05-12 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 8.02026-05-12 · double · FF · ground_ball2026-05-13 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 24.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.7 / LA 1.02026-05-15 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 20.02026-05-15 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -8.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 27.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 36.02026-05-17 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 15.02026-05-17 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 108.9 / LA 5.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 39.02026-05-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.8 / LA 2.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 17.02026-05-18 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 32.02026-05-19 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 93.5 / LA 20.02026-05-19 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 96.0 / LA 15.02026-05-19 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 1.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.2 / LA -64.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 1.02026-05-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA -9.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 73.8 / LA 0.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 42.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 39.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.5 / LA -33.02026-05-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 10.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 47.5 / LA -88.02026-05-24 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -16.02026-05-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 80.0 / LA 17.02026-05-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 3.02026-05-26 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 35.02026-05-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 34.3 / LA 33.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 38.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 109.3 / LA 15.02026-05-31 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 35.02026-06-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 108.6 / LA 15.02026-06-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 62.02026-06-05 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 107.3 / LA 16.02026-06-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 111.8 / LA 12.02026-06-18 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 31.02026-06-18 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 93.2 / LA 9.02026-06-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 53.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.8 / LA -15.02026-06-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 109.0 / LA 9.02026-06-24 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 109.8 / LA 26.02026-06-26 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -20.02026-06-30 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 29.02026-06-30 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 31.02026-06-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 65.7 / LA 22.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.7 / LA 11.02026-07-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -9.02026-07-01 · sac fly · CU · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 44.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Bauers, Jake · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 76.1 mph Hard swing rate 70% Whiff / swing 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Bauers, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 21%21%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 55%55% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.248 vs 0.217 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.058
wOBA Δ+0.117
Sample365 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances362----
Home Runs13----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3080.256 to 0.374+/- 0.059
ISO0.1550.106 to 0.257+/- 0.075
Barrel%5.8%4.1% to 9.8%+/- 2.9%
Hard-Hit%44.0%36.1% to 53.6%+/- 8.8%
K%29.2%23.6% to 37.7%+/- 7.0%
BB%10.4%7.8% to 14.2%+/- 3.2%
BABIP0.2830.201 to 0.337+/- 0.068
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

428 career PA

xwOBA0.217
K%21.3%
BB%6.7%
Barrel3.4%
vs RHP

1680 career PA

xwOBA0.248
K%23.8%
BB%9.3%
Barrel5.5%