Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026

Bauers, Jake

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.308 xwOBA
Range
0.256 to 0.374
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Impact slugger Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.301
xwOBA current pace0.348
xwOBA rolling p500.324
Observed weight49%
xwOBA
0.288 0.305 0.324 0.344 0.361
wOBA
0.398 0.419 0.442 0.465 0.485
ISO
0.172 0.192 0.215 0.237 0.258
K%
21.9% 23.8% 25.9% 28.0% 29.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
50 -20 vs proj
Barrel%9.9%
93 +33 vs proj
Bat speed75.0
98
Exit velocity92.7
94
Hard-hit%54.9%
97 +30 vs proj
K%22.1%
49 +32 vs proj
xBA0.352
76
xSLG0.640
83
xwOBA0.348
79 +31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · 1B
9
Arm Strength92.6 · 1B
87
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 1B
3
Range Runs-4.7 · 1B
5
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 1B
67
SB Success Rate80.0% · 1B
49
Sprint Speed27.0 · 1B
42
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.9% · rebadged research
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
51
Correct Decisions70.2% · rebadged research
85
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.330 · borderline
3
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
84
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262 · validated thin sample
86
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample
10
Resists FastballwOBA 0.374 · validated
8
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Bauers, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3322026-05-19: 0.3542026-05-21: 0.3622026-05-23: 0.3532026-05-24: 0.3452026-05-25: 0.3492026-05-26: 0.3492026-05-28: 0.3492026-05-29: 0.3492026-05-30: 0.3492026-05-31: 0.3482026-06-01: 0.348 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

140 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Bauers, Jake · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 21% of plotted batted ballsPull 21%Center field third: 57% of plotted batted ballsCenter 57%Right field third: 21% of plotted batted ballsOppo 21% LF 344 CF 400 RF 345 2026-03-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 47.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 74.4 / LA 36.02026-03-18 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 106.7 / LA 19.02026-03-18 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 110.0 / LA 34.02026-03-20 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA -9.02026-03-20 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 35.02026-03-21 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 52.02026-03-21 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.1 / LA 32.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.6 / LA -7.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -25.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 41.02026-03-24 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 34.02026-03-24 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 8.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 8.02026-03-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 44.02026-03-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 0.02026-03-26 · field out · ST · popup · EV 91.9 / LA 70.02026-03-28 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -2.02026-03-28 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 6.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.5 / LA 23.02026-03-29 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA -7.02026-03-30 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA -22.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 24.02026-03-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -8.02026-03-31 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 36.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 74.0 / LA 70.02026-03-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 9.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.0 / LA 17.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 15.02026-04-01 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -7.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 37.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 25.02026-04-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 69.3 / LA -34.02026-04-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 76.2 / LA -55.02026-04-04 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -27.02026-04-05 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 94.0 / LA 18.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 26.02026-04-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -5.02026-04-06 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA -15.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -26.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 63.1 / LA -47.02026-04-10 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 112.4 / LA 34.02026-04-10 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 10.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA -23.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA -6.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 36.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -9.02026-04-12 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 24.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.7 / LA 7.02026-04-12 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 48.02026-04-14 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 27.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 50.7 / LA 0.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.8 / LA -13.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -34.02026-04-15 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -12.02026-04-16 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 57.2 / LA 24.02026-04-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 109.7 / LA 12.02026-04-17 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 69.9 / LA 33.02026-04-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 12.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA -20.02026-04-18 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 21.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · popup · EV 83.3 / LA 80.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 38.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA -5.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 61.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 71.0 / LA 56.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 38.02026-04-21 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 0.02026-04-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 12.02026-04-21 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 103.3 / LA 17.02026-04-21 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 3.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 33.02026-04-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -4.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 50.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA -46.02026-04-24 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA -9.02026-04-25 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.7 / LA 29.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -4.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 43.02026-04-26 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 94.1 / LA 42.02026-04-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 18.02026-04-26 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 28.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -2.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.1 / LA 0.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 5.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 13.02026-04-29 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 15.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA -9.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.2 / LA -36.02026-04-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 0.02026-04-30 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 31.02026-04-30 · field error · EP · ground_ball · EV 64.9 / LA -43.02026-05-01 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.6 / LA -8.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 42.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 33.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 39.0 / LA -65.02026-05-03 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -13.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA -14.02026-05-03 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -1.02026-05-04 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 20.02026-05-06 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 8.02026-05-06 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA -9.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 55.9 / LA 52.02026-05-09 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 28.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 5.02026-05-12 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 8.02026-05-12 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -15.02026-05-12 · double · FF · ground_ball2026-05-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.7 / LA 1.02026-05-13 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 24.02026-05-15 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -8.02026-05-15 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 20.02026-05-17 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 15.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 27.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 36.02026-05-17 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 108.9 / LA 5.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 39.02026-05-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.8 / LA 2.02026-05-18 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 32.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 17.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.2 / LA -64.02026-05-19 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 96.0 / LA 15.02026-05-19 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 1.02026-05-19 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 93.5 / LA 20.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 1.02026-05-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA -9.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 73.8 / LA 0.02026-05-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 10.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 42.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 39.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.5 / LA -33.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 47.5 / LA -88.02026-05-24 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -16.02026-05-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 80.0 / LA 17.02026-05-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 3.02026-05-26 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 35.02026-05-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 34.3 / LA 33.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 109.3 / LA 15.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 38.02026-05-31 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 35.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Bauers, Jake · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 33.9° Length 7.6 ft Ideal path 49% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Bauers, Jake · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 10.5° Direction -1.9° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Bauers, Jake · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 76.1 mph Hard swing rate 70% Whiff / swing 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Bauers, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 20%20%Whiff: 22%22%Zone contact: 86%86%Contact: 78%78%Hard hit: 55%55% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.248 vs 0.217 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.040
wOBA Δ+0.134
Sample213 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances362----
Home Runs13----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3080.256 to 0.374+/- 0.059
ISO0.1550.106 to 0.257+/- 0.075
Barrel%5.8%4.1% to 9.8%+/- 2.9%
Hard-Hit%44.0%36.1% to 53.6%+/- 8.8%
K%29.2%23.6% to 37.7%+/- 7.0%
BB%10.4%7.8% to 14.2%+/- 3.2%
BABIP0.2830.201 to 0.337+/- 0.068
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

428 career PA

xwOBA0.217
K%21.3%
BB%6.7%
Barrel3.4%
vs RHP

1680 career PA

xwOBA0.248
K%23.8%
BB%9.3%
Barrel5.5%