The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 257 qualified hitters (334+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Contreras, Willson in signal, the comp in amber.

BOS · bats R · 550 PA

Ranked comps for Contreras, Willson

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Mayo, Coby BAL · R · 468 PA 0.74 xwOBA on contactSweet-spot rateIsolated power Fly-ball rate +1.4zSwing length -1.2zStrikeout rate +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Canzone, Dominic SEA · L · 538 PA 0.71 Hard-hit rateFly-ball rateOppo rate Swing length -1.0zPull rate -1.0zGround-ball rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Goodman, Hunter COL · R · 590 PA 0.68 Sprint speedMax exit velocityAvg exit velocity Swing length -1.2zFly-ball rate +1.1zChase rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R · 643 PA 0.68 Hard-hit ratePull rateSweet-spot rate Bat speed -1.2zMax exit velocity -1.2zFly-ball rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Burger, Jake TEX · R · 629 PA 0.65 Sprint speedBarrel rateFly-ball rate Sweet-spot rate -1.5zxwOBA on contact -1.2zIsolated power -1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Harper, Bryce PHI · L · 691 PA 0.62 Whiff rateSprint speedHard-hit rate Walk rate +1.6zSwing length -1.2zPull rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Ohtani, Shohei LAD · L · 622 PA 0.62 Pull rateWhiff rateStrikeout rate Sweet-spot rate +1.5zAvg exit velocity +1.4zHard-hit rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Montgomery, Colson CWS · L · 656 PA 0.62 Bat speedSweet-spot ratePull rate Strikeout rate +1.8zGround-ball rate -1.2zFly-ball rate +1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Caglianone, Jac KC · L · 554 PA 0.62 Max exit velocitySweet-spot ratePull rate Walk rate -1.7zAvg exit velocity +1.3zHard-hit rate +1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Langeliers, Shea ATH · R · 473 PA 0.61 Hard-hit rateChase rateIn-zone contact Pull rate -1.8zSwing length -1.4zOppo rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Abrams, CJ WSH · L · 667 PA 0.61 Avg exit velocityIsolated powerSweet-spot rate Max exit velocity -1.9zBat speed -1.2zxwOBA on contact -1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Crow-Armstrong, Pete CHC · L · 733 PA 0.60 Avg exit velocityChase rateBarrel rate Sprint speed +1.7zGround-ball rate -1.2zFly-ball rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.