Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-06-15 · saved artifact ROWS 31 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5 · 2.5

Lane Health 2026-06-15

Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

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Palantir production Fangorn experimental Valinor experimental

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Trea TurnerPHI	PHI vs MIARyan Gusto	P 69.5 F 84.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 83.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	83.7%Over prob · Valinor	82.0%no-vig	--	2.789count	0.6946prob	1.5613proj	1.085context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
02	Jordan BeckCOL	COL vs CHCShota Imanaga	P 23.6 F 23.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 22.8 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Under 2.5 3 of 3	77.2%Under prob · Valinor	74.4%no-vig	--	1.6145count	0.4622prob	0.9204proj	0.907context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
03	Manny MachadoSD	SD vs STLDustin May	P 65.5 F 78.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 82.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	82.0%Over prob · Valinor	77.6%no-vig	--	2.6158count	0.6547prob	1.366proj	1.01context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
04	Alec BohmPHI	PHI vs MIARyan Gusto	P 62.9 F 79.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 82.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	82.5%Over prob · Valinor	78.1%no-vig	--	2.3667count	0.6295prob	1.3671proj	1.085context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
05	Daylen LileWSH	WSH vs KCMitch Spence	P 63.7 F 78.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 77.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	77.7%Over prob · Valinor	75.4%no-vig	--	2.3118count	0.637prob	1.2614proj	0.943context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
06	Jackson MerrillSD	SD vs STLDustin May	P 68.0 F 81.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 80.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	80.5%Over prob · Valinor	78.6%no-vig	--	2.6752count	0.6799prob	1.3932proj	1.01context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
07	Bryce HarperPHI	PHI vs MIARyan Gusto	P 48.0 F 48.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 47.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	47.6%Over prob · Valinor	78.9%no-vig	--	2.8915count	0.6931prob	1.4261proj	1.085context	FanDuel 240 avg 1 books
08	Fernando Tatis Jr.SD	SD vs STLDustin May	P 64.9 F 81.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 79.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	79.6%Over prob · Valinor	76.5%no-vig	--	2.551count	0.6491prob	1.3264proj	1.01context	FanDuel -135 avg 1 books
09	James WoodWSH	WSH vs KCMitch Spence	P 63.0 F 75.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 74.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	74.7%Over prob · Valinor	73.7%no-vig	--	2.4339count	0.6305prob	1.2248proj	0.943context	FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
10	Cj AbramsWSH	WSH vs KCMitch Spence	P 65.0 F 66.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 65.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	65.0%Over prob · Valinor	75.6%no-vig	--	2.4683count	0.6505prob	1.2942proj	0.943context	FanDuel -195 avg 1 books
11	Brandon MarshPHI	PHI vs MIARyan Gusto	P 57.6 F 77.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 75.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	75.6%Over prob · Valinor	72.2%no-vig	--	2.1268count	0.5755prob	1.1619proj	1.085context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
12	Bryson StottPHI	PHI vs MIARyan Gusto	P 52.3 F 73.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 72.9 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	72.9%Over prob · Valinor	70.9%no-vig	--	1.8885count	0.5231prob	1.1208proj	1.085context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
13	Junior CamineroTB	TB vs LADEric Lauer	P 42.8 F 44.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 42.8 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	42.8%Over prob · Valinor	74.0%no-vig	--	2.6206count	0.651prob	1.2123proj	0.985context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
14	Kyle SchwarberPHI	PHI vs MIARyan Gusto	P 64.0 F 72.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 71.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	71.7%Over prob · Valinor	70.9%no-vig	--	2.8182count	0.6405prob	1.1526proj	1.085context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
15	Xander BogaertsSD	SD vs STLDustin May	P 49.2 F 69.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 69.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	69.3%Over prob · Valinor	68.5%no-vig	--	1.7484count	0.4921prob	1.0488proj	1.01context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
16	Jake MangumPIT	PIT vs ATHJ.T. Ginn	P 24.7 F 22.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 25.9 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	25.9%Over prob · Valinor	72.9%no-vig	--	1.6821count	0.4812prob	1.1759proj	0.931context	DraftKings 290 avg 1 books
17	Jakob MarseeMIA	MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 55.8 F 73.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 72.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	72.3%Over prob · Valinor	70.4%no-vig	--	1.9577count	0.5578prob	1.1076proj	0.943context	FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
18	Miguel AndujarSD	SD vs STLDustin May	P 24.6 F 25.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 24.2 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.2%Over prob · Valinor	68.9%no-vig	--	1.6724count	0.4746prob	1.0342proj	1.01context	DraftKings 290 avg 1 books
19	Xavier EdwardsMIA	MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 40.1 F 72.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 71.2 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	71.2%Over prob · Valinor	69.5%no-vig	--	1.4144count	0.4012prob	1.0799proj	0.943context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
20	J.t. RealmutoPHI	PHI vs MIARyan Gusto	P 53.8 F 70.8 EXPERIMENTAL V 70.4 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	70.4%Over prob · Valinor	69.9%no-vig	--	1.9536count	0.538prob	1.081proj	1.085context	FanDuel 175 avg 1 books
21	José TenaWSH	WSH vs KCMitch Spence	P 24.5 F 23.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 23.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.3%Over prob · Valinor	67.4%no-vig	--	1.6595count	0.4817prob	1.0117proj	0.943context	DraftKings 290 avg 1 books
22	Keibert RuizWSH	WSH vs KCMitch Spence	P 48.0 F 70.5 EXPERIMENTAL V 69.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	69.5%Over prob · Valinor	67.9%no-vig	--	1.7273count	0.4802prob	1.0341proj	0.943context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
23	Gavin SheetsSD	SD vs STLDustin May	P 49.1 F 69.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 67.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	67.7%Over prob · Valinor	64.9%no-vig	--	1.7511count	0.4908prob	0.9526proj	1.01context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
24	Josh LoweLAA	LAA vs AZRyne Nelson	P 24.2 F 23.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 22.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	22.6%Over prob · Valinor	63.0%no-vig	--	1.6472count	0.478prob	0.8997proj	0.936context	DraftKings 295 avg 1 books
25	Carson KellyCHC	CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen	P 24.2 F 21.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 25.4 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	25.4%Over prob · Valinor	62.8%no-vig	--	1.6422count	0.4627prob	0.8923proj	1.057context	DraftKings 295 avg 1 books
26	Otto LopezMIA	MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 37.6 F 63.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 62.1 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	62.1%Over prob · Valinor	60.7%no-vig	--	1.3348count	0.3761prob	0.8472proj	0.943context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
27	Austin MartinMIN	MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore	P 40.2 F 39.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 39.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	39.0%Over prob · Valinor	62.8%no-vig	--	1.3728count	0.4016prob	0.8966proj	1.001context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
28	Dylan CrewsWSH	WSH vs KCMitch Spence	P 41.8 F 61.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 59.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	59.7%Over prob · Valinor	57.1%no-vig	--	1.4294count	0.4176prob	0.7741proj	0.943context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
29	Jo AdellLAA	LAA vs AZRyne Nelson	P 53.1 F 52.5 EXPERIMENTAL V 51.9 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	51.9%Over prob · Valinor	62.1%no-vig	--	1.9379count	0.5313prob	0.8908proj	0.936context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
30	Matt WallnerMIN	MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore	P 24.4 F 22.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 26.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	26.0%Over prob · Valinor	55.3%no-vig	--	1.6745count	0.5046prob	0.7357proj	1.001context	DraftKings 295 avg 1 books
31	Liam HicksMIA	MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler	P 31.3 F 56.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 56.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	56.3%Over prob · Valinor	56.2%no-vig	--	1.153count	0.3131prob	0.7534proj	0.943context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books