Mithrandir Metrics
Game markets 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Game market · model-only

NRFI and YRFI.

First-inning run probabilities with model and market context kept distinct.

Games
13
Status
Model Only
Date
2026-09-26
NRFI / YRFI model only METHOD model only ROWS 13
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Model-only view

Model-only view. Live NRFI/YRFI prop lines from sportsbooks are not currently captured in our data pipeline. The probabilities shown are our model's first-inning projection based on starter quality, top-of-lineup quality, park, and weather. When line data is available, we will add the model-market gap.

First-inning board
#GameStartersModel NRFIModel YRFI1st inn runsRead
01
NYM @ WSH822678
Jonah TongConnelly Early
49.6% 50.4% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
02
PIT @ DET824219
Kirby YatesJustin Verlander
46.2% 53.8% 0.77 model onlymodel-only projection
03
CIN @ TOR822759
Rhett LowderTrey Yesavage
47.9% 52.1% 0.74 model onlymodel-only projection
04
LAD @ SF823165
Blake SnellMatt Wilkinson
49.7% 50.3% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
05
TEX @ MIN823653
Nathan EovaldiBailey Ober
48.0% 52.0% 0.73 model onlymodel-only projection
06
ATL @ MIA823813
Brent SuterJack Ralston
50.5% 49.5% 0.68 model onlymodel-only projection
07
CLE @ KC824057
Tanner BibeeMichael Wacha
49.0% 51.0% 0.71 model onlymodel-only projection
08
COL @ CWS824543
Jose QuintanaDavis Martin
50.2% 49.8% 0.69 model onlymodel-only projection
09
STL @ MIL823733
Quinn MathewsDustin May
49.6% 50.4% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
10
TB @ PHI823407
Griffin Jax--
49.7% 50.3% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
11
AZ @ SD823245
--Walker Buehler
48.9% 51.1% 0.71 model onlymodel-only projection
12
HOU @ ATH824949
Hayden WesneskiJack Perkins
46.0% 54.0% 0.78 model onlymodel-only projection
13
LAA @ SEA823083
Ryan JohnsonKade Anderson
48.7% 51.3% 0.72 model onlymodel-only projection