Mithrandir Metrics
Game markets 2026-07-16 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Game market · model-only

NRFI / YRFI · first-inning context.

First-inning run probabilities from the model, shown separately from sportsbook line capture.

Games
1
Status
Model Only
Date
2026-07-16
NRFI / YRFI model only METHOD model only ROWS 1
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Model-only view

Model-only view. Live NRFI/YRFI prop lines from sportsbooks are not currently captured in our data pipeline. The probabilities shown are our model's first-inning projection based on starter quality, top-of-lineup quality, park, and weather. When line data is available, we will add edge calculation.

First-inning board
#GameStartersModel NRFIModel YRFI1st inn runsRead
01
NYM @ PHI823440
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 46.6% 53.4% 0.76 model onlymodel-only projection