Mithrandir Metrics
Game markets 2026-07-16 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Game market · pilot

Totals & run lines · game-level estimates.

Game-level projected runs are surfaced as a pilot view from cached Live State and projection artifacts. No affiliate handoff, no betslip language.

Games
1
Method
Rolling
Date
2026-07-16
GAME LINES rolling context ROWS 1 MARKET GAP sanity-checked
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Projection stack

Rolling team talent · opponent · starter · bullpen · lineup status

daily cached
TEAM TALENT Bayesian rolling wins OPPONENT runs allowed context STARTER rolling ERA BULLPEN FIP LINEUP confirmed / pending
Game board
#GameHome team runsAway team runsModel totalMarket O/UGapRun lineRead
01
NYM @ PHIgame 823440
 4.47PHI 4.91NYM 9.4model 9.5FanDuel raw total-runs market -0.1runs 1.5 / -1.5home / away rolling contextstarter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed