Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Xander Bogaerts

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs STLDustin May
Sample6581.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 70.9
F 69.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 69.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 70.9% Market 68.5% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel -250 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.3
F 19.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 20.3% Market -- Gap +10.0pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
55 +17 vs proj
Exit velocity88.7
53
Hard-hit%39.9%
51 +16 vs proj
xBA0.319
45
xSLG0.503
48
xwOBA0.324
64
BB%9.5%
60 +30 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
47
K%18.7%
72
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
46
Arm Strength85.8 · SS
49
Outs Above Avg3.0 · SS
86
Range Runs2.4 · SS
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · SS
58
SB Success Rate87.5% · SS
76
Sprint Speed27.2 · SS
45
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7%
71
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7%
35
Correct Decisions67.8%
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.295 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.022
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)