Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-04-09 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-04-09
0 activated plays
Gap rows 108
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-04-10 Older: 2026-04-08

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Andrew Benintendi

Strong

CWS vs KC | Seth Lugo

Value Score 38.3
Odds / Gap +640 / +7.91%
1+ HR 21.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.098x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+7.91%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+7.91%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+7.81%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.35%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +215 / U -255
+6.35%
30.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +230 / U -280
+4.50%
29.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +220 / U --
-9.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+5.17%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+5.11%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+5.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+4.75%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+4.75%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+4.67%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.3
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+4.69%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +695 / U -1065
+4.69%
12.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+4.61%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.6
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1605
+4.35%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+4.22%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1695
+4.17%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.2
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+4.27%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+4.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+4.02%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+3.87%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
+3.76%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+3.76%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.83%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.83%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.83%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.1
José Caballero headshot

José Caballero
NYY vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1130 / U -2055
+3.80%
7.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1100 / U --
+3.60%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1090 / U -2165
+3.53%
8.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.72%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -340
+3.72%
25.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -365
+2.50%
24.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-6.96%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+3.63%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+3.52%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+3.47%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.3
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1015
+3.55%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1075
+3.55%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+3.47%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+3.48%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+3.39%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+3.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+3.30%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+3.19%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+3.19%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+3.28%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+3.28%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+3.20%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+3.25%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+3.25%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.17%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.02%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+2.90%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+2.90%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+2.97%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+2.89%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+2.89%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.53%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.39%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+2.25%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -395
+2.35%
22.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -425
+1.20%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-5.41%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +320 / U -390
+1.80%
23.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -420
+0.62%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +325 / U --
-4.92%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.27%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.27%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.27%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.5
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+1.15%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+0.12%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-4.50%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +815 / U -1250
+0.71%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +805 / U -1320
+0.59%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +805 / U --
+0.59%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.7
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -705
+0.22%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -660
-0.06%
16.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
-0.06%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.08%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.88%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.47%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
-0.06%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
-1.19%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-3.20%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
-0.09%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-0.28%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
-0.47%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-0.35%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.27%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-2.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -620
-0.46%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.62%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.78%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.84%
17.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-1.65%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-2.58%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-0.89%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-1.02%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-1.02%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-0.95%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-1.20%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.46%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mark Vientos headshot

Mark Vientos
NYM vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
-0.97%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-1.11%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-1.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-1.12%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-1.93%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-2.17%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%