{
  "date": "2026-04-09",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-09T09:14:10.771814",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 63,
    "odds_matched_count": 36,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 8,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-09",
      "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_id": 682829,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823884,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2218,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.199,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.67,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-09",
      "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton",
      "hitter_id": 621439,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 823724,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1655,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1809,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1656,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.65,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-09",
      "player_name": "Marcus Semien",
      "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien",
      "hitter_id": 543760,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 823645,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 605,
      "over_odds": 605,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1805,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1991,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1806,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.15,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-09",
      "player_name": "TJ Friedl",
      "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl",
      "hitter_id": 670770,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823884,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 655,
      "over_odds": 655,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.18,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1985,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1801,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-09",
      "player_name": "Royce Lewis",
      "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis",
      "hitter_id": 668904,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 823724,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1473,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1594,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1474,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 28.19,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-09",
      "player_name": "Jacob Wilson",
      "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson",
      "hitter_id": 805779,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823565,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 965,
      "over_odds": 965,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1374,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1478,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1375,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 25.22,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Solid enough base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-09",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero",
      "hitter_id": 676609,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 823565,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 1130,
      "over_odds": 1130,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1193,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.127,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1194,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 19.79,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Solid enough base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-09",
      "player_name": "Luke Keaschall",
      "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall",
      "hitter_id": 807712,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 823724,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 815,
      "over_odds": 815,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1164,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1237,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1165,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 18.92,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Solid enough base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.67
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Byron Buxton",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1655,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.65
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcus Semien",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 605,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1805,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.15
      },
      {
        "player_name": "TJ Friedl",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 655,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.18,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Royce Lewis",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1473,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 28.19
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jacob Wilson",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 965,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1374,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 25.22
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 1130,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1193,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 19.79
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Luke Keaschall",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 815,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1164,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 18.92
      }
    ]
  }
}