{ "date": "2026-04-09", "generated_at": "2026-04-09T09:13:02.750052", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-04-09", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 108, "matched_count": 108, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 108, "matched_rows": 108, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 52, "under_recommendation_count": 4, "strong_count": 3, "play_count": 11, "lean_count": 42, "no_play_count": 52, "average_edge_over": 0.0064, "average_edge_under": -0.0441, "value_play_count": 1 }, "edge_count": 108, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -895, "expected_home_runs": 0.2411, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2142, "model_over_probability": 0.2142, "model_under_probability": 0.7858, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8995, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1306, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8694, "edge_over": 0.0791, "edge_under": -0.1137, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0791, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9317, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.094, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.098, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1929, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1833, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0657, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1504, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2242, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1955, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0153, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0578, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0482, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1346, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0891, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0604, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1644, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0653, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 38.3, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -955, "expected_home_runs": 0.2411, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2142, "model_over_probability": 0.2142, "model_under_probability": 0.7858, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9052, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8701, "edge_over": 0.0791, "edge_under": -0.1194, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0791, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9317, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.094, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.098, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1929, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1833, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0657, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1504, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2242, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1955, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0153, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0578, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0482, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1346, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0891, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0604, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1644, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0653, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 38.3, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2411, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2142, "model_over_probability": 0.2142, "model_under_probability": 0.7858, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0781, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0781, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9317, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.094, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.098, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1929, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1833, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0658, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1504, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2242, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1955, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0143, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0568, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0472, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1356, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0881, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0594, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1644, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0653, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": 37.8, "value_rank": 3, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 215, "under_odds": -255, "expected_home_runs": 0.2462, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2182, "model_over_probability": 0.2182, "model_under_probability": 0.7818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3175, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3065, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6935, "edge_over": -0.0993, "edge_under": 0.0635, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0635, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.141, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.975, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 48.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 35.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 37.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2302, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1883, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0053, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1357, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0763, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1799, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2118, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1841, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1376, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0873, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1292, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.3122, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1818, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1057, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1334, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0435, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1304, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0711, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_id": 666397, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 790, "under_odds": -1195, "expected_home_runs": 0.1792, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1641, "model_over_probability": 0.1641, "model_under_probability": 0.8359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9228, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1086, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8914, "edge_over": 0.0517, "edge_under": -0.0869, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0517, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.935, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.39, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1368, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1359, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1017, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0479, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0385, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1404, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.128, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0739, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0244, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0235, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1121, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0107, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.028, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0231, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0156, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0338, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1014, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3056, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0476, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 8, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_id": 666397, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 785, "under_odds": -1270, "expected_home_runs": 0.1792, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1641, "model_over_probability": 0.1641, "model_under_probability": 0.8359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.113, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.927, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1087, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8913, "edge_over": 0.0511, "edge_under": -0.0911, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0511, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.935, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.39, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1368, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1359, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1017, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0479, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0385, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1404, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.128, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0745, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0238, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0229, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1127, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0113, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0274, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0225, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.015, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0338, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1014, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3056, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0476, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 9, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_id": 666397, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 785, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1792, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1641, "model_over_probability": 0.1641, "model_under_probability": 0.8359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.113, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0511, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0511, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.935, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.39, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1368, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1359, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1017, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0479, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0385, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1404, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.128, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0745, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0238, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0229, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1127, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0113, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0274, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0225, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.015, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0338, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1014, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3056, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0476, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 10, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.1985, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.18, "model_over_probability": 0.18, "model_under_probability": 0.82, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.128, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.872, "edge_over": 0.0475, "edge_under": -0.0824, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0475, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9514, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.21, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.853, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.51, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1637, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1473, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0543, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0933, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1529, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1366, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0392, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0312, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0148, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0258, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0041, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0355, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1064, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0539, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 12, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -985, "expected_home_runs": 0.1985, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.18, "model_over_probability": 0.18, "model_under_probability": 0.82, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8726, "edge_over": 0.0475, "edge_under": -0.0878, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0475, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9514, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", 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-0.0714, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 18, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 965, "under_odds": -1605, "expected_home_runs": 0.1478, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1374, "model_over_probability": 0.1374, "model_under_probability": 0.8626, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0939, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0907, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9093, "edge_over": 0.0435, "edge_under": -0.0787, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0435, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.897, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.84, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.136, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.975, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.074, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0363, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0192, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0837, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.065, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0199, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0576, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0936, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0728, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0658, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0069, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0208, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0189, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 20, "edge_direction_rank": 13, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -760, "expected_home_runs": 0.2218, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989, "model_over_probability": 0.1989, "model_under_probability": 0.8011, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8837, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8498, "edge_over": 0.0427, "edge_under": -0.0826, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0427, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.21, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.853, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2318, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1886, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0735, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1854, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2099, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1823, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0292, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0756, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0324, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0217, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0537, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0261, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0731, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 21, "edge_direction_rank": 14, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 950, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1478, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1374, "model_over_probability": 0.1374, "model_under_probability": 0.8626, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0952, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0422, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0422, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.897, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.84, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.136, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.975, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.074, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0363, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0192, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0837, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0663, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0212, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0589, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0949, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0741, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0335, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0671, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0115, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0069, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0208, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0189, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 22, "edge_direction_rank": 15, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 945, "under_odds": -1695, "expected_home_runs": 0.1478, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1374, "model_over_probability": 0.1374, "model_under_probability": 0.8626, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0957, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9443, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.092, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.908, "edge_over": 0.0417, "edge_under": -0.0817, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0417, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.897, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.84, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.136, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.975, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.074, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0363, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0192, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0837, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0668, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0217, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0594, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0954, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0746, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0676, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.012, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0069, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0208, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0189, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 23, "edge_direction_rank": 16, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2218, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989, "model_over_probability": 0.1989, "model_under_probability": 0.8011, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0414, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0414, "play_tier": "Lean", 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"hr_multiplier": 0.853, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2318, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1886, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0735, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1854, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2099, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1823, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0267, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0731, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0299, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1583, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0242, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0236, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0731, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 25, "edge_direction_rank": 18, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "hitter_id": 543760, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", 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4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.103, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.9, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.1, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.8, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.61, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1455, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1218, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0466, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1094, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1223, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1162, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0324, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0037, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.02, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1413, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0559, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0195, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0275, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0256, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0285, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0854, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.345, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0461, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 26, "edge_direction_rank": 19, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.1259, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1183, "model_over_probability": 0.1183, "model_under_probability": 0.8817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": 0.0383, "edge_under": -0.0733, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0383, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.094, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.098, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.69, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0965, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1339, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0409, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0253, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1447, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1309, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0547, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0165, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0539, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0267, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0647, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0622, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0509, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4357, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0405, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", 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"projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.25, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.7, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.94, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1401, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1355, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0483, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0731, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1204, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0519, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0151, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0105, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0247, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0039, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0086, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0046, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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"CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": -910, "expected_home_runs": 0.184, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1681, "model_over_probability": 0.1681, "model_under_probability": 0.8319, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1296, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8704, "edge_over": 0.0339, "edge_under": -0.0691, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0339, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8666, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.21, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.853, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0946, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0346, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0898, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0962, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1011, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0444, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0308, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0396, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1338, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.066, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0434, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0331, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0678, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0342, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 44, "edge_direction_rank": 35, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.184, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1681, "model_over_probability": 0.1681, "model_under_probability": 0.8319, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0339, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0339, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8666, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.21, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.853, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0946, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0346, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0898, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0962, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1011, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0444, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0308, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0396, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1338, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.066, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0434, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0331, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0678, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0342, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 45, "edge_direction_rank": 36, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -880, "expected_home_runs": 0.1921, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1748, "model_over_probability": 0.1748, "model_under_probability": 0.8252, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.898, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1364, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8636, "edge_over": 0.033, "edge_under": -0.0728, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.033, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9195, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.15, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.21, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.853, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.06, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.46, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1753, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1599, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1163, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0585, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0978, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1702, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1494, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.044, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0335, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0181, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1414, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0255, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0284, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0076, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0387, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.116, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0845, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0582, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 46, "edge_direction_rank": 37, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -950, "expected_home_runs": 0.1776, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1627, "model_over_probability": 0.1627, "model_under_probability": 0.8373, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9048, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1255, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8745, "edge_over": 0.0328, "edge_under": -0.0675, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0328, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9203, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.935, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.67, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.08, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.08, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1136, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1117, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0832, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0396, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0653, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1117, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1099, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0646, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0163, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0182, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1295, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0467, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0182, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.02, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0276, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0828, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3506, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0392, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 47, "edge_direction_rank": 38, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -1010, "expected_home_runs": 0.1776, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1627, "model_over_probability": 0.1627, "model_under_probability": 0.8373, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9099, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1249, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8751, "edge_over": 0.0328, "edge_under": -0.0726, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0328, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9203, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.935, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.67, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.08, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.09, 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"hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 52, "edge_direction_rank": 42, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -825, "expected_home_runs": 0.1921, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1748, "model_over_probability": 0.1748, "model_under_probability": 0.8252, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8919, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1381, 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"projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.06, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.46, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1753, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1599, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1163, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0585, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0978, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1702, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1494, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0451, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0324, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.017, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1425, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0266, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0121, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", 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"hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1425, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0266, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0121, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0387, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.116, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0845, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0582, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 54, "edge_direction_rank": 44, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "hitter_id": 663616, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1704, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1567, "model_over_probability": 0.1567, "model_under_probability": 0.8433, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0317, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0317, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8661, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.79, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1683, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.159, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0572, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1127, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1698, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.149, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0123, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0433, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.034, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0086, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0448, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.03, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.024, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1159, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0964, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0568, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 55, "edge_direction_rank": 45, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "hitter_id": 605137, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": -780, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8864, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1479, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8521, "edge_over": 0.0302, "edge_under": -0.0704, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0302, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9519, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.84, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.9, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1991, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1629, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0634, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1113, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1697, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1489, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0425, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0453, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0091, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1533, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0374, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0049, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1159, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.226, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0629, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 56, "edge_direction_rank": 46, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 685, "under_odds": -980, "expected_home_runs": 0.1709, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1571, "model_over_probability": 0.1571, "model_under_probability": 0.8429, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1231, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8769, "edge_over": 0.0297, "edge_under": -0.0645, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0297, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7963, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.62, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.21, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.853, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1094, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1343, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0434, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0751, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1502, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1347, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0523, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.018, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0069, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0207, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0228, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0073, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0355, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1064, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.322, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0431, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 58, "edge_direction_rank": 47, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "hitter_id": 605137, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1498, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8502, "edge_over": 0.029, "edge_under": -0.0635, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.029, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9519, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": 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81, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 815, "under_odds": -1250, "expected_home_runs": 0.1237, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1164, "model_over_probability": 0.1164, "model_under_probability": 0.8836, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1093, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9259, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1056, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8944, "edge_over": 0.0071, "edge_under": -0.0423, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0071, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.821, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 2.53, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0437, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0318, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0131, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0263, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0658, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0856, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.083, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0656, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0775, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.109, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0882, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0435, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0812, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0237, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0069, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0208, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0129, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 93, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": -420, "expected_home_runs": 0.2059, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1861, "model_over_probability": 0.1861, "model_under_probability": 0.8139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8077, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2236, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7764, "edge_over": -0.0465, "edge_under": 0.0062, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0062, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8865, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.141, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.975, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 28.18, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2148, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1877, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1348, "hr_prob_refined": 0.071, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1768, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2146, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1865, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0558, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0178, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0449, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0978, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0535, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0461, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0444, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1331, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1971, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0692, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 94, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 805, "under_odds": -1320, "expected_home_runs": 0.1237, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1164, "model_over_probability": 0.1164, "model_under_probability": 0.8836, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1062, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8938, "edge_over": 0.0059, "edge_under": -0.046, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0059, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.821, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 2.53, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0437, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0318, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0131, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0263, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0658, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0856, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0842, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0668, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0787, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1102, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0894, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0447, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0824, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0249, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0069, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0208, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0129, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 96, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 805, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1237, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1164, "model_over_probability": 0.1164, "model_under_probability": 0.8836, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1105, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0059, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0059, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.821, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 2.53, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0437, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0318, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0131, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0263, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0658, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0856, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0842, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0668, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0787, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1102, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0894, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0447, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0824, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0249, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0069, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0208, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0129, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", 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"platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9386, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.21, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.853, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 27.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.157, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1466, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0534, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1276, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1493, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.134, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0852, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0558, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0662, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2118, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1059, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0635, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0706, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0788, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1059, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1985, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model 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"edge_under": -0.031, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0089, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8025, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, 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"fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.162, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0449, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple 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"expected_home_runs": 0.2391, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2127, "model_over_probability": 0.2127, "model_under_probability": 0.7873, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2136, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7864, "edge_over": -0.0095, "edge_under": -0.0309, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0095, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.985, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.59, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.136, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.975, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1765, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1619, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0013, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1183, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0598, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1332, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1776, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1551, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.089, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0457, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0603, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2209, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1039, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0446, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0649, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0671, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.039, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.117, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2171, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0584, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 88, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "hitter_id": 668901, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.1725, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1584, "model_over_probability": 0.1584, "model_under_probability": 0.8416, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1615, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8385, "edge_over": -0.0097, "edge_under": -0.031, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0097, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8983, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.103, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.9, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.31, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.74, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1385, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1175, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0448, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1064, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.105, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.106, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0617, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0296, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0506, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1674, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0848, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0631, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0573, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0621, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0275, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0826, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3572, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0441, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 87, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "hitter_id": 668904, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -715, "expected_home_runs": 0.1594, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1473, "model_over_probability": 0.1473, "model_under_probability": 0.8527, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8773, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1522, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8478, "edge_over": -0.0102, "edge_under": -0.0246, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0102, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8025, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.49, 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"same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.57, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.19, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.25, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.125, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.131, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0454, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1234, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0736, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0325, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0265, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": 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"everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8983, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.103, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.9, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.31, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.74, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1385, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1175, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0448, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1064, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.105, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.106, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0631, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.031, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.052, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1687, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0862, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0645, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0587, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0635, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0275, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0826, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3572, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0441, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 83, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "hitter_id": 668901, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1725, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1584, "model_over_probability": 0.1584, "model_under_probability": 0.8416, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0111, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0111, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8983, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.103, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.9, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.31, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.74, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1385, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1175, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0833, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0448, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1064, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.105, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.106, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0631, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.031, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.052, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1687, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0862, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0645, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0587, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0635, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0275, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0826, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3572, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0441, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 84, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -435, "expected_home_runs": 0.2208, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1981, "model_over_probability": 0.1981, "model_under_probability": 0.8019, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8131, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7854, "edge_over": -0.0241, "edge_under": -0.0112, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0112, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9423, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.33, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.136, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.975, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1652, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1597, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1184, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0576, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1272, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.173, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1515, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.095, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.057, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0625, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0492, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0649, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0707, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.039, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1169, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1822, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0561, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 82, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", 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"projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.7, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 28.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 18.98, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1919, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1769, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0649, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1395, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1884, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1638, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.071, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0186, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0336, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2094, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0811, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0221, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0467, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1283, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1775, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0638, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 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"MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 11, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", 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"platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.103, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.9, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 37.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 42.72, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 27.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 35.66, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2031, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1849, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1347, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0684, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1421, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2102, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1826, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0905, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0295, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0477, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2312, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0979, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0224, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0535, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.05, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0444, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1333, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2003, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.067, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 7, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2108, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1901, "model_over_probability": 0.1901, "model_under_probability": 0.8099, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0696, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0696, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8913, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.136, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.975, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.11, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1044, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1266, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.002, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1007, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0422, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1162, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1248, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1178, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1435, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1553, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1331, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2577, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1349, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1261, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1419, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0329, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0987, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4768, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0402, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2462, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2182, "model_over_probability": 0.2182, "model_under_probability": 0.7818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0943, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0943, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.141, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.975, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 48.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 35.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 37.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2302, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1883, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0049, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1356, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0761, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1799, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2118, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1841, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1326, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0823, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1242, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.3076, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1769, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1007, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1334, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1284, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0436, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1307, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0712, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "value_plays": [ { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 640, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2142, "edge_over": 0.0791, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.098, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 38.3, "value_rank": 1, "value_row_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [] }