Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hunter Greene
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CHC | 6.27 | 28.1% | 31.4% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 0 |
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs STL | 6.14 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 6.07 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs BOS | 5.89 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Flaherty
Probable starter
|
DET vs PHI | 5.79 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs COL | 5.58 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Shohei Ohtani
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 5.40 | 26.8% | 27.2% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CLE | 5.08 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs LAA | 5.05 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIL | 4.98 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CIN | 4.97 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs DET | 4.93 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs WSH | 4.87 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Shane Bieber
Probable starter
|
TOR vs SD | 4.58 | 23.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TB | 4.56 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIA | 4.36 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYM | 4.30 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIN | 4.29 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CWS | 4.21 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jp Sears
Probable starter
|
SD vs TOR | 4.16 | 20.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs ATH | 4.05 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.02 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs SEA | 3.85 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Luinder Avila
Probable starter
|
KC vs BAL | 3.75 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 1 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs KC | 3.67 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Tanner Gordon
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 3.60 | 19.5% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PIT | 3.59 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs ATL | 3.57 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Carson Palmquist
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYY | 3.53 | 18.5% | 19.2% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Cal Quantrill
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 3.22 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.