Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Luinder Avila

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 195 lb · Age 24

Cards
5
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025111.29130014.0160.93
2026435.08189056.2501.62
2 Seasons544.33319070.2661.49
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
19
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal6 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.40
ERA current pace5.08
ERA rolling p504.26
Observed weight51%
ERA
2.47 3.32 4.26 5.20 6.05
FIP
2.86 3.54 4.28 5.03 5.70
K%
18.5% 20.4% 22.5% 24.5% 26.4%
BB%
9.2% 10.4% 11.7% 13.0% 14.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.71
5
ERA5.08
24
BB%13.5%
9 -25 vs proj
K%19.9%
32 -27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.337
27 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
65
Fastball velo96.2
76
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
65
Whiff%22.0%
42 -33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Changeup Stuff+97
19
Curveball Stuff+104
78
Fastball Stuff+107
81
Sinker Stuff+96
14
Slider Stuff+104
61
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Avila, Luinder · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.337 2026-07-05: 0.3312026-07-06: 0.3312026-07-07: 0.3272026-07-08: 0.3272026-07-09: 0.3272026-07-10: 0.3272026-07-11: 0.3272026-07-12: 0.3372026-07-13: 0.3372026-07-14: 0.3372026-07-15: 0.3372026-07-16: 0.337 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Avila, Luinder · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Avila, Luinder · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.7%Sinker: 26.0%Slider: 21.8%Curveball: 15.3%Changeup: 10.2% FF27% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 27%SI 26%SL 22%CU 15%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Avila, Luinder · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSinker: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.3 mphSI96 mphSlider: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.4 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 28.5% 145 96 limited sample
SL 28.3% 144 104 limited sample
FB 25.5% 130 107 limited sample
CB 9.0% 46 104 limited sample
CH 8.6% 44 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age24
Height6' 3"
Weight195 lb
Debut2025-08-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.82
K% Δ-0.040

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.364
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.337

Avila’s wOBA-against sits at 0.364, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.337 — a gap of 0.027, 0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 54 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching52026-07-10Sinker played up through CU/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.9% K | 4.26 ERAProjection
2026-04-08 @ CLE1 ER / 2 K3.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs MIL5 ER / 4 K3.0 IP