Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CIN | 5.93 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 5.75 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIN | 5.52 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs ATH | 4.95 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PIT | 4.86 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs KC | 4.84 | 25.2% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CHC | 4.72 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs NYM | 4.60 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 4.58 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BOS | 4.53 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs STL | 4.46 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs BAL | 4.36 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CLE | 4.34 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PHI | 4.28 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 4.28 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs ATL | 4.28 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Griffin Canning
Probable starter
|
SD vs AZ | 4.08 | 20.5% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs MIA | 4.05 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CWS | 4.04 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SD | 3.98 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs DET | 3.85 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs SEA | 3.56 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 3.42 | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIL | 3.27 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.