Mithrandir Metrics
Player Houston Astros Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Houston Astros

Hunter Brown

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 220 lb · Age 27

Cards
11
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Houston Astros Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241193.4931300170.01791.27
20251292.4331310185.12061.03
2026103.5777035.1391.39
5 Seasons37313.49107990566.26241.22
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal6 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.45
ERA current pace3.57
ERA rolling p503.50
Observed weight42%
ERA
2.60 3.03 3.50 3.97 4.39
FIP
3.35 3.62 3.91 4.21 4.48
K%
22.9% 24.5% 26.3% 28.1% 29.7%
BB%
8.7% 9.6% 10.6% 11.6% 12.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
23
ERA3.57
60
BB%14.4%
6 -56 vs proj
K%25.9%
73
xwOBA allowed0.302
64
Barrel allowed6.0%
76 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
36
Whiff%24.1%
58
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+98
20
Curveball Stuff+102
42
Fastball Stuff+111
96
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Sinker Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+108
91
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Brown, Hunter · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.302 2026-07-06: 0.2882026-07-07: 0.2882026-07-08: 0.2882026-07-09: 0.2882026-07-10: 0.2882026-07-11: 0.2882026-07-12: 0.3022026-07-13: 0.3022026-07-14: 0.3022026-07-15: 0.3022026-07-16: 0.3022026-07-17: 0.302 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Brown, Hunter · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brown, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.3%Sinker: 28.2%Knuckle Curve: 19.8%Changeup: 9.7%Slider: 8.9%Cutter: 0.1% FF33% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 33%SI 28%KC 20%CH 10%SL 9%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brown, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphSinker: 28% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.5 mphSI96 mphKnuckle Curve: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 82.8 mphKC83 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphSlider: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.8 mphSL90 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.7 mphFC96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 32.8% 87 100 limited sample
FB 31.7% 84 111 limited sample
CB 19.2% 51 102 limited sample
SL 10.2% 27 108 limited sample
CH 6.0% 16 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 2"
Weight220 lb
Debut2022-09-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.31
K% Δ-0.006

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.365
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.302

Brown’s wOBA-against sits at 0.365, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.302 — a gap of 0.063, 1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 38 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching112026-07-10Sinker played up through SI/KC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.5% K | 3.26 ERAProjection
2026-03-31 vs BOS1 ER / 8 K6.0 IP
2026-03-26 vs LAA0 ER / 9 K4.2 IP