Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TB | 6.12 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs LAA | 6.04 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs BOS | 5.92 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 5.87 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs KC | 5.86 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs DET | 5.84 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs WSH | 5.61 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CHC | 5.17 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
DET vs PHI | 5.14 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Hudson
Probable starter
|
CWS vs ATH | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CLE | 4.66 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIA | 4.59 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIL | 4.52 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs SD | 4.51 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs COL | 4.40 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CWS | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs STL | 4.24 | 22.8% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 4.22 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.08 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 4.01 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs BAL | 4.00 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs ATL | 3.83 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 3.67 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIN | 3.55 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs TOR | 3.48 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PIT | 3.47 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYY | 3.38 | 16.7% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 2 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs SEA | 3.33 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Javier Assad
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CIN | 3.19 | 17.5% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.