Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs PIT | 6.77 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CLE | 5.77 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs TOR | 5.54 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TEX | 5.35 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs PHI | 5.33 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs DET | 5.12 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs TB | 5.11 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs HOU | 5.01 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CWS | 4.81 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs STL | 4.62 | 22.8% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs MIN | 4.62 | 25.0% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Max Meyer
Probable starter
|
MIA vs COL | 4.58 | 23.7% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs LAD | 4.52 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Trevor McDonald
Probable starter
|
SF vs AZ | 4.45 | 22.9% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SD | 4.28 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 2 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SF | 4.23 | 18.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs MIA | 4.05 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs WSH | 4.05 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs NYY | 4.02 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CIN | 3.85 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Noah Schultz
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BAL | 3.84 | 21.6% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs KC | 3.78 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIL | 3.63 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Brad Lord
Probable starter
|
WSH vs BOS | 3.54 | 19.8% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs CHC | 3.10 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Braydon Fisher
Probable starter
|
TOR vs NYM | 2.98 | 20.6% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 13.2 | 10 | 1 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs ATL | 2.58 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.