Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Colin Rea

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 220 lb · Age 36

Cards
16
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241264.2932271167.21351.26
20251173.9532271159.11271.25
2026754.751915194.2701.45
8 Seasons44324.461451183700.25631.29
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
25
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal7 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.33
ERA current pace4.75
ERA rolling p504.60
Observed weight65%
ERA
3.43 3.98 4.60 5.22 5.78
FIP
4.04 4.37 4.75 5.12 5.46
K%
15.3% 16.4% 17.6% 18.8% 19.9%
BB%
6.8% 7.4% 8.1% 8.9% 9.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
23
ERA4.75
31
BB%8.9%
46 -31 vs proj
K%17.3%
15
xwOBA allowed0.363
9
Barrel allowed9.8%
22
Fastball velo93.5
35
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
43
Whiff%18.5%
14
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Slider Stuff+104
58
Changeup Stuff+106
75
Curveball Stuff+100
22
Cutter Stuff+101
47
Sinker Stuff+95
12
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rea, Colin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.363 2026-07-05: 0.3572026-07-06: 0.3572026-07-07: 0.3572026-07-08: 0.3572026-07-09: 0.3572026-07-10: 0.3632026-07-11: 0.3632026-07-12: 0.3632026-07-13: 0.3632026-07-14: 0.3632026-07-15: 0.3632026-07-16: 0.363 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rea, Colin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rea, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.2%Changeup: 17.3%Slider: 11.1%Sinker: 9.3%Sweeper: 9.2%Cutter: 6.5% FF41% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 41%CH 17%SL 11%SI 9%ST 9%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rea, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mphSinker: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.5 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.0 mphST83 mphCutter: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.1 mphFC87 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 79.8 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.3% 467 98 qualified
SL 24.6% 243 104 qualified
SI 10.6% 105 95 limited sample
FC 7.4% 73 101 limited sample
CB 6.2% 61 100 limited sample
CH 3.9% 38 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 5"
Weight220 lb
Debut2015-08-11
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.21
K% Δ+0.005

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.374
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.363

Rea’s wOBA-against sits at 0.374, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.363 — a gap of 0.011, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 100 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching162026-07-08Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202616.8% K | 4.54 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs PHI1 ER / 5 K6.2 IP
2026-04-14 @ PHI3 ER / 5 K6.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ TB1 ER / 2 K5.0 IP
2026-04-03 @ CLE1 ER / 4 K3.1 IP
2026-03-30 vs LAA2 ER / 4 K3.0 IP