Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs PIT | 6.22 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs NYY | 6.15 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs DET | 5.98 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs NYM | 5.92 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs HOU | 5.66 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SEA | 5.55 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs TOR | 5.52 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SD | 5.32 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Connelly Early
Probable starter
|
BOS vs WSH | 5.22 | 25.0% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CLE | 5.21 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAA | 5.09 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TEX | 4.97 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Mike Burrows
Probable starter
|
HOU vs MIN | 4.69 | 19.7% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 5 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs LAD | 4.68 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Trey Gibson
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CWS | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs TB | 4.38 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs COL | 4.28 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs AZ | 4.26 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs PHI | 4.14 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CIN | 3.96 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Jp Sears
Probable starter
|
SD vs CHC | 3.78 | 20.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIL | 3.73 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs STL | 3.48 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs ATL | 3.45 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs ATH | 3.40 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 3 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BAL | 3.27 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs BOS | 3.04 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs KC | 2.95 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.