Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Brad Lord

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 26

Cards
7
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20255104.3448190130.21081.29
2026523.78405183.1771.22
2 Seasons10124.1288241214.01851.27
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal5 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace3.94
ERA rolling p503.95
Observed weight61%
ERA
2.87 3.38 3.95 4.52 5.03
FIP
3.39 3.74 4.12 4.50 4.85
K%
18.9% 20.1% 21.3% 22.6% 23.8%
BB%
7.0% 7.7% 8.5% 9.3% 10.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
70
ERA3.94
54
BB%9.2%
47 -25 vs proj
K%21.8%
47 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.305
60 +31 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
73 +29 vs proj
Fastball velo94.5
51
Hard-hit allowed36.9%
62
Whiff%17.5%
10
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+105
76
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Sinker Stuff+110
95
Slider Stuff+101
43
Changeup Stuff+98
22
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lord, Brad · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.305 2026-09-12: 0.3082026-09-13: 0.3072026-09-14: 0.3072026-09-18: 0.3062026-09-19: 0.3062026-09-20: 0.3062026-09-21: 0.3062026-09-22: 0.3062026-09-23: 0.3062026-09-24: 0.3052026-09-25: 0.3052026-09-26: 0.305 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lord, Brad · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lord, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.9%Sinker: 25.0%Slider: 19.2%Sweeper: 14.0%Changeup: 4.9% FF37% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 37%SI 25%SL 19%ST 14%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lord, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphSinker: 25% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphSlider: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.2 mphSL85 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.4 mphST83 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.9% 412 105 qualified
SL 32.7% 365 101 qualified
SI 25.5% 285 110 qualified
CH 4.8% 54 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 3"
Weight210 lb
Debut2025-03-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.46
K% Δ+0.025

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.338
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.305

Lord’s wOBA-against sits at 0.338, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.305 — a gap of 0.033, 1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 88 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching72026-09-02Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.4% K | 4.40 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ NYM2 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-20 vs ATL1 ER / 1 K2.2 IP
2026-04-15 @ PIT0 ER / 2 K3.0 IP
2026-04-13 @ PIT3 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-11 @ MIL0 ER / 3 K1.2 IP