Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CIN | 6.36 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIL | 5.86 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs DET | 5.75 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Alan Rangel
Probable starter
|
PHI vs PIT | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs KC | 4.62 | 25.0% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Hurston Waldrep
Probable starter
|
ATL vs STL | 4.58 | 22.4% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs TEX | 4.57 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAA | 4.43 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SEA | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs PHI | 4.23 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CWS | 4.18 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs MIA | 4.13 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Stephen Kolek
Probable starter
|
KC vs TB | 4.11 | 18.0% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 0 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CLE | 3.98 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs COL | 3.98 | 21.5% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs ATL | 3.83 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SD | 3.80 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs LAD | 3.10 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.