Mithrandir Metrics
Player Boston Red Sox Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Boston Red Sox

Payton Tolle

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 6", 250 lb · Age 23

Cards
6
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Boston Red Sox Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025016.0673016.1191.59
2026332.7099053.1541.05
2 Seasons343.491612069.2731.18
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
83
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
79
Arsenal6 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-15
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace2.70
ERA rolling p503.29
Observed weight49%
ERA
2.09 2.66 3.29 3.92 4.49
FIP
2.58 2.98 3.42 3.85 4.25
K%
19.8% 21.9% 24.1% 26.4% 28.4%
BB%
6.1% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 9.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.06
83
ERA2.70
79
BB%6.1%
85 +44 vs proj
K%25.5%
72 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.250
95 +36 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.6%
85 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo95.8
72
Hard-hit allowed32.9%
87
Whiff%23.4%
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-15
Fastball Stuff+106
75
Changeup Stuff+103
56
Curveball Stuff+103
64
Cutter Stuff+104
67
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Tolle, Payton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.250 2026-06-04: 0.2372026-06-05: 0.2422026-06-06: 0.2422026-06-07: 0.2422026-06-08: 0.2422026-06-09: 0.2422026-06-10: 0.2422026-06-11: 0.2502026-06-12: 0.2502026-06-13: 0.2502026-06-14: 0.2502026-06-15: 0.250 2026-06-04 2026-06-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Tolle, Payton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolle, Payton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.9%Sinker: 23.2%Cutter: 16.6%Curveball: 9.2%Changeup: 3.1% FF48% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SI 23%FC 17%CU 9%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolle, Payton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSinker: 23% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphCutter: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.5 mphFC88 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 82.3 mphCU82 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.6 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.8% 222 106 qualified
SI 24.2% 120 104 limited sample
FC 16.0% 79 104 limited sample
CB 11.1% 55 103 limited sample
CH 3.8% 19 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age23
Height6' 6"
Weight250 lb
Debut2025-08-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.66
K% Δ+0.031

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.299
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.250

Tolle’s wOBA-against sits at 0.299, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.250 — a gap of 0.049, 1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 56 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching62026-05-224-Seam Fastball played up through SI/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.4% K | 4.36 ERAProjection