Mithrandir Metrics
Player Detroit Tigers Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Detroit Tigers

Troy Melton

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 210 lb · Age 25

Cards
18
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Detroit Tigers Position P Roster Current MLB team Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025322.76164045.2361.01
2026852.7620200114.1941.13
2 Seasons1172.7636240160.01301.09
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal7 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace2.52
ERA rolling p502.98
Observed weight66%
ERA
1.80 2.36 2.98 3.61 4.17
FIP
3.23 3.68 4.18 4.67 5.12
K%
18.1% 19.3% 20.6% 21.9% 23.1%
BB%
6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8% 9.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
81
ERA2.52
91
BB%7.9%
65 +16 vs proj
K%20.0%
35
xwOBA allowed0.302
65 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
73 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
78
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
51
Whiff%21.7%
45
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Changeup Stuff+100
34
Curveball Stuff+102
41
Cutter Stuff+102
60
Sinker Stuff+101
43
Slider Stuff+104
69
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Melton, Troy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.302 2026-09-12: 0.2972026-09-13: 0.2972026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.2992026-09-19: 0.2992026-09-20: 0.2992026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.3022026-09-24: 0.3022026-09-25: 0.3022026-09-26: 0.302 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Melton, Troy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.8%Cutter: 21.8%Slider: 17.1%Changeup: 11.3%Sinker: 9.1%Curveball: 7.9% FF33% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 33%FC 22%SL 17%CH 11%SI 9%CU 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.2 mphFC92 mphSlider: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.9 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.3 mphCH89 mphSinker: 9% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.7 mphSI96 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 79.5 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.1% 284 104 qualified
FC 21.7% 181 102 limited sample
SL 17.0% 142 104 limited sample
SI 10.1% 84 101 limited sample
CB 9.7% 81 102 limited sample
CH 7.4% 62 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age25
Height6' 4"
Weight210 lb
Debut2025-07-23
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.73
K% Δ+0.004

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.302
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.302

Melton’s wOBA-against sits at 0.302, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.302 — a gap of 0.000, 0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 113 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching182026-09-20Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.6% K | 4.25 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs CWS3 ER / 4 K4.1 IP