Mithrandir Metrics
Player Detroit Tigers Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Detroit Tigers

Troy Melton

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 210 lb · Age 25

Cards
6
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Detroit Tigers Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025322.76164045.2361.01
2026511.8099055.0500.87
2 Seasons832.2425130100.2860.93
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace1.82
ERA rolling p502.98
Observed weight44%
ERA
1.84 2.38 2.98 3.58 4.11
FIP
3.40 3.83 4.31 4.78 5.21
K%
18.1% 19.8% 21.8% 23.7% 25.5%
BB%
5.6% 6.4% 7.3% 8.3% 9.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.82
98
ERA1.82
97
BB%5.8%
89 +45 vs proj
K%21.7%
45 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.269
89 +61 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
77 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo96.0
75
Hard-hit allowed36.3%
66
Whiff%21.8%
41
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+101
35
Cutter Stuff+101
40
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Sinker Stuff+105
72
Slider Stuff+102
51
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Melton, Troy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.269 2026-07-06: 0.2742026-07-07: 0.2742026-07-08: 0.2742026-07-09: 0.2742026-07-10: 0.2692026-07-11: 0.2692026-07-12: 0.2692026-07-13: 0.2692026-07-14: 0.2692026-07-15: 0.2692026-07-16: 0.2692026-07-17: 0.269 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Melton, Troy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.4%Cutter: 20.1%Slider: 18.9%Split-Finger: 8.9%Sinker: 8.9%Curveball: 5.7% FF37% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 37%FC 20%SL 19%FS 9%SI 9%CU 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mphSlider: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphSplit-Finger: 9% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.5 mphFS88 mphSinker: 9% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.4 mphSI95 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 78.0 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.3% 98 101 limited sample
FC 21.7% 48 101 limited sample
SL 14.5% 32 102 limited sample
SI 11.8% 26 105 limited sample
CB 7.7% 17 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age25
Height6' 4"
Weight210 lb
Debut2025-07-23
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-2.43
K% Δ+0.022

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.245
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.269

Melton’s wOBA-against sits at 0.245, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.269 — a gap of 0.025, -0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 49 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching62026-07-08Four-Seam Fastball played up through SL/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.5% K | 4.25 ERAProjection