Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs KC | 6.24 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SD | 6.22 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs STL | 5.77 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs NYM | 5.63 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SEA | 5.54 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs NYY | 5.52 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 5.38 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs HOU | 5.33 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs MIL | 5.31 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
HOU vs PIT | 5.19 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Shohei Ohtani
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 5.02 | 26.8% | 27.2% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CLE | 4.83 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs TOR | 4.82 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs COL | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Max Meyer
Probable starter
|
MIA vs WSH | 4.58 | 23.7% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CHC | 4.30 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs ATH | 4.28 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 2 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.23 | 18.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs BAL | 4.05 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIA | 4.02 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs TB | 4.02 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs DET | 3.85 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAA | 3.75 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Patrick Corbin
Probable starter
|
TOR vs ATL | 3.73 | 19.9% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Stephen Kolek
Probable starter
|
KC vs CIN | 3.73 | 18.0% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 0 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs BOS | 3.41 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 4 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs TEX | 3.27 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIN | 3.27 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs PHI | 3.10 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.