Mithrandir Metrics
Player WSH Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / WSH

Andrew Alvarez

Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 3", 215 lb · Age 27

Cards
16
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club WSH Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025112.3155023.1201.11
2026263.4325171112.21141.30
2 Seasons373.2430221136.01341.26
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal6 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace3.35
ERA rolling p503.76
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.41 3.05 3.76 4.47 5.11
FIP
2.55 3.03 3.56 4.09 4.57
K%
19.9% 21.2% 22.6% 23.9% 25.2%
BB%
8.5% 9.3% 10.1% 10.9% 11.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
53
ERA3.35
73
BB%10.7%
28 -19 vs proj
K%24.0%
66 +25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.315
48 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.2%
70 +31 vs proj
Fastball velo92.1
16
Hard-hit allowed40.7%
33
Whiff%24.6%
65 +30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+103
59
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+101
36
Changeup Stuff+99
29
Sinker Stuff+100
34
Slider Stuff+104
65
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarez, Andrew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.315 2026-09-12: 0.3212026-09-13: 0.3142026-09-14: 0.3142026-09-18: 0.3152026-09-19: 0.3152026-09-20: 0.3152026-09-21: 0.3102026-09-22: 0.3102026-09-23: 0.3102026-09-24: 0.3102026-09-25: 0.3102026-09-26: 0.315 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarez, Andrew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarez, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 32.0%4-Seam Fastball: 28.1%Slider: 20.2%Sinker: 14.3%Changeup: 5.4% CU32% · 83 mphprimary pitch CU 32%FF 28%SL 20%SI 14%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarez, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Curveball: 32% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphSlider: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.2 mphSL84 mphSinker: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.7 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.4 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 32.3% 324 103 qualified
FB 27.4% 275 98 qualified
SL 19.6% 197 104 limited sample
SI 13.9% 139 100 limited sample
CH 6.8% 68 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.16
K% Δ+0.032

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.307
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.315

Alvarez’s wOBA-against sits at 0.307, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.315 — a gap of 0.008, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 111 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching162026-09-25Curveball played up through CU/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.8% K | 4.51 ERAProjection