Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Andrew Alvarez

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 3", 215 lb · Age 27

Cards
5
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025112.3155023.1201.11
2026234.04136149.0531.45
2 Seasons343.481811172.1731.34
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace4.04
ERA rolling p504.33
Observed weight47%
ERA
3.03 3.65 4.33 5.00 5.62
FIP
2.51 2.97 3.48 3.98 4.44
K%
18.5% 20.2% 22.2% 24.1% 25.8%
BB%
7.6% 8.5% 9.6% 10.6% 11.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
22
ERA4.04
49
BB%10.3%
31
K%24.9%
68 +30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
42 +27 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.2%
84 +41 vs proj
Fastball velo92.3
19
Hard-hit allowed43.3%
23
Whiff%24.9%
65 +32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+103
53
Curveball Stuff+104
79
Fastball Stuff+97
18
Mithrandir Stuff+101
45
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+103
54
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarez, Andrew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.321 2026-07-06: 0.3132026-07-07: 0.3132026-07-08: 0.3132026-07-09: 0.3132026-07-10: 0.3132026-07-11: 0.3132026-07-12: 0.3132026-07-13: 0.3132026-07-14: 0.3222026-07-15: 0.3222026-07-16: 0.3212026-07-17: 0.321 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarez, Andrew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 38%38%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarez, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 29.8%4-Seam Fastball: 28.7%Slider: 24.2%Sinker: 14.4%Changeup: 2.9% CU30% · 83 mphprimary pitch CU 30%FF 29%SL 24%SI 14%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarez, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Curveball: 30% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.4 mphFF92 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.0 mphSL84 mphSinker: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.1 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 31.2% 126 104 limited sample
FB 26.2% 106 97 limited sample
SL 25.0% 101 103 limited sample
SI 14.4% 58 100 limited sample
CH 3.2% 13 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 3"
Weight215 lb
Debut2025-09-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.47
K% Δ+0.041

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.327
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.321

Alvarez’s wOBA-against sits at 0.327, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.321 — a gap of 0.006, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 48 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching52026-07-07Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.8% K | 4.51 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs NYM2 ER / 5 K4.0 IP