Mithrandir Metrics
Player Atlanta Braves Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Atlanta Braves

Tyler Mahle

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 212 lb · Age 31

Cards
30
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Atlanta Braves Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024014.9733012.2101.42
2025642.181616086.2661.13
20267103.9927270149.01371.23
10 Seasons46564.051691680884.08901.28
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.79
ERA current pace3.81
ERA rolling p503.80
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.52 3.13 3.80 4.48 5.09
FIP
3.10 3.51 3.96 4.42 4.82
K%
19.4% 20.3% 21.4% 22.4% 23.3%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 7.9% 8.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
68
ERA3.81
58
BB%7.3%
73
K%22.7%
55 +37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
59 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
58 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
24
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
59
Whiff%21.3%
40
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+103
62
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Mithrandir Stuff+106
87
Sinker Stuff+94
9
Slider Stuff+95
11
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mahle, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.306 2026-09-12: 0.3132026-09-13: 0.3102026-09-14: 0.3102026-09-18: 0.3102026-09-19: 0.3042026-09-20: 0.3042026-09-21: 0.3042026-09-22: 0.3042026-09-23: 0.3042026-09-24: 0.3042026-09-25: 0.3042026-09-26: 0.306 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mahle, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mahle, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.0%Split-Finger: 29.6%Cutter: 14.9%Slider: 6.8%Sinker: 0.7% FF48% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 48%FS 30%FC 15%SL 7%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mahle, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphSplit-Finger: 30% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.3 mphFS86 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 87.7 mphFC88 mphSlider: 7% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mphSinker: 1% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 68.8% 824 106 qualified
FC 19.1% 229 103 qualified
SL 10.6% 127 95 limited sample
SI 1.4% 17 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 3"
Weight212 lb
Debut2017-08-27
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.26
K% Δ+0.051

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.320
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.306

Mahle’s wOBA-against sits at 0.320, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.306 — a gap of 0.015, 0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 151 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching302026-09-24Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/FS tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202617.7% K | 4.07 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ AZ6 ER / 6 K5.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ CIN8 ER / 6 K4.0 IP
2026-04-08 vs PHI0 ER / 6 K5.2 IP
2026-04-03 vs NYM5 ER / 4 K5.0 IP