Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Miles Mikolas

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 230 lb · Age 37

Cards
11
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Suspended # days Status Suspended
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
202410115.3532320171.21221.28
20258114.8431310156.11001.32
2026375.53208094.1501.33
11 Seasons75824.3326122101346.29451.22
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal6 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason5.15
ERA current pace5.53
ERA rolling p505.39
Observed weight64%
ERA
4.07 4.70 5.39 6.08 6.71
FIP
4.62 4.98 5.38 5.78 6.14
K%
11.0% 12.1% 13.3% 14.5% 15.6%
BB%
4.0% 4.6% 5.2% 5.9% 6.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
45
ERA5.53
16
BB%5.5%
92
K%12.1%
2
xwOBA allowed0.342
23
Barrel allowed8.5%
39
Fastball velo93.1
26
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
35
Whiff%11.9%
0
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+103
57
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Sinker Stuff+109
95
Slider Stuff+104
60
Changeup Stuff+103
52
Curveball Stuff+101
34
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mikolas, Miles · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.342 2026-07-07: 0.3372026-07-08: 0.3412026-07-09: 0.3412026-07-10: 0.3412026-07-11: 0.3412026-07-12: 0.3412026-07-13: 0.3422026-07-14: 0.3422026-07-15: 0.3422026-07-16: 0.3422026-07-17: 0.3422026-07-18: 0.342 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mikolas, Miles · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 12%12%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mikolas, Miles · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 25.3%Sinker: 23.8%Slider: 22.0%Curveball: 14.7%Changeup: 8.3%Sweeper: 5.9% FF25% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 25%SI 24%SL 22%CU 15%CH 8%ST 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mikolas, Miles · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSinker: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.9 mphSI93 mphSlider: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 76.7 mphCU77 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.3 mphST82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 26.5% 239 104 qualified
FB 25.4% 229 103 qualified
SI 24.9% 225 109 qualified
CB 14.4% 130 101 limited sample
CH 8.9% 80 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age37
Height6' 4"
Weight230 lb
Debut2012-05-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.12
K% Δ-0.032

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.375
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.342

Mikolas’s wOBA-against sits at 0.375, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.342 — a gap of 0.033, 1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 98 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching112026-07-06Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202615.3% K | 5.65 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 @ PIT3 ER / 0 K3.1 IP
2026-04-08 vs STL2 ER / 3 K3.0 IP
2026-04-03 vs LAD11 ER / 4 K4.1 IP