The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 255 qualified hitters (336+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Alvarez, Francisco in signal, the comp in amber.

NYM · bats R · 432 PA

Ranked comps for Alvarez, Francisco

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Basallo, Samuel BAL · L · 415 PA 0.74 Avg exit velocityBat speedFly-ball rate Chase rate +1.2zPull rate +1.2zIn-zone contact +0.7z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Burger, Jake TEX · R · 634 PA 0.74 Max exit velocityWalk rateHard-hit rate Sprint speed +1.5zSweet-spot rate -1.1zxwOBA on contact -0.7z Player Projection Swing lab
03 McMahon, Ryan NYY · L · 381 PA 0.71 Swing lengthStrikeout rateHard-hit rate Barrel rate -1.2zIn-zone contact +1.0zGround-ball rate -0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Baty, Brett NYM · L · 486 PA 0.67 Walk rateAvg exit velocityMax exit velocity Sprint speed +1.1zGround-ball rate -1.1zSweet-spot rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Riley, Austin ATL · R · 645 PA 0.64 Chase rateStrikeout rateAvg exit velocity Sprint speed +1.9zGround-ball rate -1.6zFly-ball rate +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Baldwin, Drake ATL · L · 636 PA 0.62 Walk rateBarrel rateSwing length Strikeout rate -1.5zWhiff rate -1.4zSweet-spot rate +1.3z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Canzone, Dominic SEA · L · 543 PA 0.62 Fly-ball rateBat speedBarrel rate Strikeout rate -1.7zIn-zone contact +1.3zIsolated power +1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Walker, Christian HOU · R · 644 PA 0.61 Chase rateBat speedPull rate xwOBA on contact -1.4zIn-zone contact +1.2zStrikeout rate -1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Eldridge, Bryce SF · L · 456 PA 0.61 Swing lengthMax exit velocityBat speed Walk rate +1.5zGround-ball rate -1.1zChase rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Hernández, Teoscar LAD · R · 508 PA 0.61 xwOBA on contactAvg exit velocityChase rate Sprint speed +2.2zOppo rate +1.3zPull rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Seager, Corey TEX · L · 450 PA 0.61 Oppo ratexwOBA on contactWhiff rate Swing length -1.5zMax exit velocity -1.2zSweet-spot rate +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Cowser, Colton BAL · L · 411 PA 0.60 Whiff rateOppo rateStrikeout rate Sprint speed +2.0zBarrel rate -1.5zAvg exit velocity -1.3z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.