Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Baldwin, Drake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
93
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.344 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.369 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.362 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.341
0.351
0.362
0.373
0.383
wOBA
0.352
0.364
0.377
0.390
0.401
ISO
0.154
0.164
0.175
0.186
0.195
K%
18.4%
19.3%
20.3%
21.3%
22.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.9%
94
+24 vs proj
Exit velocity91.5
91
Hard-hit%50.2%
94
xBA0.366
92
xSLG0.663
91
xwOBA0.369
96
BB%9.2%
58
Bat speed73.4
91
K%21.6%
58
-30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
67
Catcher Throwing-3.2 · C
6
Framing Runs2.1 · C
72
Pop Time1.9 · C
65
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · C
23
Sprint Speed25.9 · C
15
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.3% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
44
Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
26
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
32
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
78
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.376 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388 · validated
6
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
280 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.034 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.042 |
| Sample | 631 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 436 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.334 | 0.301 to 0.382 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.151 | 0.121 to 0.235 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 5.0% to 8.8% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.7% | 37.8% to 52.6% | +/- 7.4% |
| K% | 15.2% | 13.0% to 21.9% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 6.1% to 11.6% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.273 to 0.340 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
102 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.216 |
| K% | 11.3% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |
vs RHP
380 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.241 |
| K% | 10.0% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 5.6% |