Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Riley, Austin
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team ATL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
56
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.344 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.288 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.284
0.295
0.308
0.320
0.332
wOBA
0.276
0.290
0.306
0.321
0.335
ISO
0.136
0.148
0.161
0.175
0.187
K%
24.6%
25.8%
27.1%
28.5%
29.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
75
Exit velocity90.3
78
Hard-hit%42.3%
65
-25 vs proj
xBA0.300
26
xSLG0.538
60
xwOBA0.288
29
-52 vs proj
BB%8.4%
48
Bat speed73.9
93
K%28.5%
21
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
27
Arm Strength87.2 · 3B
56
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 3B
12
Range Runs-2.4 · 3B
24
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · 3B
87
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
93
Sprint Speed27.8 · 3B
61
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6% · rebadged research
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2% · rebadged research
39
Correct Decisions63.3% · rebadged research
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · borderline
84
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · insufficient sample
95
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263 · validated thin sample
90
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
55
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
19
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.056 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.038 |
| Sample | 404 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 484 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.343 | 0.297 to 0.382 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.203 | 0.143 to 0.265 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 8.6% | 6.2% to 10.8% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 49.6% | 43.9% to 56.8% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 25.2% | 20.8% to 30.4% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 5.2% to 10.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.320 | 0.270 to 0.362 | +/- 0.046 |
vs LHP
873 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.298 |
| K% | 19.1% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |
vs RHP
2922 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 7.8% |