Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.271 vs 0.232 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Butler, Lawrence
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.329 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.299 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.315 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.289
0.301
0.315
0.329
0.342
wOBA
0.236
0.257
0.279
0.302
0.322
ISO
0.108
0.126
0.145
0.165
0.182
K%
22.2%
24.0%
25.9%
27.9%
29.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.2%
74
+28 vs proj
Barrel%3.9%
33
-32 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
74
Exit velocity89.0
55
Hard-hit%45.8%
75
K%26.8%
27
xBA0.334
62
xSLG0.488
43
xwOBA0.299
39
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · RF
54
Arm Strength91.3 · RF
38
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · RF
3
Range Runs-2.0 · RF
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · CF
16
Sprint Speed26.2 · CF
22
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.8% · rebadged research
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
73
Correct Decisions71.0% · rebadged research
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · insufficient sample
96
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
58
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318 · validated
87
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.326 · validated
95
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
108 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.025 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.045 |
| Sample | 179 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 572 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 21 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.324 | 0.297 to 0.362 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.176 | 0.130 to 0.256 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 4.3% to 8.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.1% | 40.0% to 51.6% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 24.2% | 19.5% to 31.3% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 6.7% to 11.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.248 to 0.338 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
246 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 25.5% |
| BB% | 4.9% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
1013 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 20.8% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 5.7% |