Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CLE
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.265 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.336 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.292 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.230
0.260
0.292
0.325
0.355
wOBA
0.401
0.427
0.456
0.484
0.510
ISO
0.096
0.123
0.154
0.185
0.212
K%
12.3%
16.6%
21.4%
26.1%
30.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.6%
78
+39 vs proj
Barrel%3.6%
29
Bat speed67.0
20
Exit velocity89.2
56
Hard-hit%41.3%
56
+23 vs proj
K%18.8%
69
+38 vs proj
xBA0.340
66
xSLG0.501
47
xwOBA0.336
72
+33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.3 · 2B
46
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 2B
15
Range Runs-1.4 · 2B
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · 2B
86
SB Success Rate77.8% · 2B
42
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
78
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.5% · rebadged research
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
51
Correct Decisions72.3% · rebadged research
93
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
16
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · insufficient sample
5
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
85
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
26
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
91
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
88 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.038 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.158 |
| Sample | 138 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.298 | 0.133 to 0.326 | +/- 0.097 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.024 to 0.205 | +/- 0.090 |
| Barrel% | 3.9% | 0.2% to 5.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.2% | 13.7% to 38.7% | +/- 12.5% |
| K% | 25.6% | 7.6% to 36.5% | +/- 14.5% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 1.8% to 9.7% | +/- 4.0% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.196 to 0.365 | +/- 0.085 |
vs LHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.4% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.5% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |