Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 28 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 192 lb |
| Debut | 2023-04-27 |
Player profile / Milwaukee Brewers
Joey Ortiz
SS · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 192 lb · Age 28
Club Milwaukee Brewers
Position SS
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 511 | 58 | 105 | 11 | 11 | .239 | .329 | .398 | .727 |
| 2025 | 506 | 62 | 108 | 7 | 14 | .230 | .276 | .317 | .593 |
| 2026 | 415 | 49 | 100 | 9 | 9 | .270 | .328 | .402 | .730 |
| 4 Seasons | 1466 | 173 | 320 | 27 | 34 | .244 | .308 | .366 | .674 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
37
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.297 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.297 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.297 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.275
0.285
0.297
0.308
0.319
wOBA
0.320
0.333
0.349
0.364
0.378
ISO
0.107
0.118
0.131
0.143
0.155
K%
16.9%
18.0%
19.2%
20.4%
21.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
21
Exit velocity87.4
44
Hard-hit%36.6%
42
xBA0.312
43
xSLG0.444
30
xwOBA0.297
44
BB%8.7%
54
Bat speed71.2
74
K%19.8%
68
-18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · SS
12
Arm Strength86.3 · SS
44
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
47
Range Runs12.3 · SS
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · SS
21
Bolts18.0 · SS
74
SB Success Rate54.5% · SS
6
Sprint Speed29.1 · SS
91
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.3% · rebadged research
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.5% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions61.9% · rebadged research
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
68
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
83
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
100
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
58
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
197 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.055 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Ortiz’s wOBA sits at 0.349, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.297 — a gap of 0.052, -1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 435 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales, Nick PIT · R | 0.72 | Chase rateOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Turner, Trea PHI · R | 0.71 | xwOBA on contactIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Cronenworth, Jake SD · L | 0.70 | Walk rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Lopez, Otto MIA · R | 0.68 | Chase rateOppo rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-07-22 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 20 | 2026-09-24 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.556 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.294 xwOBA | 10 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ LAD1 HR | 2 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBI |
| 2026-05-20 @ CHC0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, R |
| 2026-04-17 @ MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 | R |
| 2026-04-15 vs TOR0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | K, SB |
| 2026-04-14 vs TOR0 HR | 0 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K, R |