Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Ortiz, Joey
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
23
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.297 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.295 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.296 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.283
0.296
0.309
0.321
wOBA
0.274
0.292
0.311
0.330
0.348
ISO
0.075
0.088
0.103
0.119
0.132
K%
15.1%
16.4%
17.8%
19.2%
20.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.7%
18
Exit velocity85.1
19
Hard-hit%31.7%
21
xBA0.298
25
xSLG0.421
19
xwOBA0.295
37
BB%9.2%
57
+19 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
63
K%17.6%
76
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · SS
13
Arm Strength86.3 · SS
48
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
43
Range Runs6.4 · SS
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · SS
12
Bolts9.0 · SS
66
SB Success Rate50.0% · SS
3
Sprint Speed29.0 · SS
90
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.5% · rebadged research
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.9% · rebadged research
12
Correct Decisions62.0% · rebadged research
15
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline
85
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
48
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
63
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339 · validated
89
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
29
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
125 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| Sample | 261 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 531 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.274 to 0.342 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.121 | 0.092 to 0.208 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 2.7% | 1.7% to 6.1% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.6% | 32.4% to 45.4% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 16.0% | 14.1% to 23.3% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.3% to 10.7% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.269 | 0.233 to 0.328 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
344 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.240 |
| K% | 14.8% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
794 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 13.9% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |