Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Ortiz, Joey
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
37
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.297 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.297 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.297 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.275
0.285
0.297
0.308
0.319
wOBA
0.320
0.333
0.349
0.364
0.378
ISO
0.107
0.118
0.131
0.143
0.155
K%
16.9%
18.0%
19.2%
20.4%
21.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
21
Exit velocity87.4
44
Hard-hit%36.6%
42
xBA0.312
43
xSLG0.444
30
xwOBA0.297
44
BB%8.7%
54
Bat speed71.2
74
K%19.8%
68
-18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · SS
12
Arm Strength86.3 · SS
44
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
47
Range Runs12.3 · SS
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · SS
21
Bolts18.0 · SS
74
SB Success Rate54.5% · SS
6
Sprint Speed29.1 · SS
91
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.3% · rebadged research
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.5% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions61.9% · rebadged research
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
68
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
83
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
100
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
58
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
197 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.055 |
| Sample | 435 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 531 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.274 to 0.342 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.121 | 0.092 to 0.208 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 2.7% | 1.7% to 6.1% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.6% | 32.4% to 45.4% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 16.0% | 14.1% to 23.3% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.3% to 10.7% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.269 | 0.233 to 0.328 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
344 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.240 |
| K% | 14.8% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
794 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 13.9% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |