Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Realmuto, J.t.
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team PHI
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.306 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.317 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.288
0.301
0.317
0.332
0.346
wOBA
0.273
0.296
0.321
0.346
0.369
ISO
0.090
0.107
0.127
0.146
0.164
K%
19.3%
20.8%
22.5%
24.2%
25.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.1%
30
Barrel%1.9%
13
-49 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
79
Exit velocity88.4
49
Hard-hit%40.5%
53
K%17.9%
75
+37 vs proj
xBA0.306
34
xSLG0.447
30
xwOBA0.306
46
-19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
62
Catcher Throwing2.2 · C
95
Framing Runs2.0 · C
81
Pop Time1.9 · C
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · C
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7% · rebadged research
51
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions65.9% · rebadged research
47
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
46
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
29
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
47
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
19
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.331 · validated
94
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
54
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
108 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.020 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| Sample | 156 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 536 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.326 | 0.295 to 0.369 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.104 to 0.225 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.1% to 8.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.0% | 38.8% to 51.3% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 23.8% | 20.3% to 29.8% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 4.7% to 9.3% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.271 to 0.359 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
1475 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.283 |
| K% | 21.7% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 7.1% |
vs RHP
4317 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 21.3% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |