Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Realmuto, J.t.
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team PHI
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
48
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.313 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.318 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.292
0.305
0.318
0.332
0.344
wOBA
0.280
0.297
0.316
0.335
0.352
ISO
0.117
0.132
0.148
0.164
0.179
K%
20.2%
21.5%
22.9%
24.4%
25.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
24
-40 vs proj
Exit velocity89.2
63
Hard-hit%39.3%
51
-16 vs proj
xBA0.320
49
xSLG0.494
44
xwOBA0.313
57
BB%7.7%
39
+17 vs proj
Bat speed71.5
75
K%20.7%
61
+20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.2 · C
62
Catcher Throwing1.7 · C
89
Framing Runs-0.2 · C
49
Pop Time1.9 · C
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.2 · C
73
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.6% · rebadged research
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions66.8% · rebadged research
58
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.317 · borderline
8
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · insufficient sample
14
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
19
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315 · validated
89
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.321 · validated
98
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
57
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
130 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| Sample | 271 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 536 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.326 | 0.295 to 0.369 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.104 to 0.225 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.1% to 8.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.0% | 38.8% to 51.3% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 23.8% | 20.3% to 29.8% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 4.7% to 9.3% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.271 to 0.359 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
1475 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.283 |
| K% | 21.7% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 7.1% |
vs RHP
4317 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 21.3% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |