Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / KC · 2026

Collins, Isaac

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.317 xwOBA
Range
0.258 to 0.368
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced regular Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
45
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
51
Defense4 metrics
34
Speed4 metrics
18
Plate skills10 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.317
xwOBA current pace0.315
xwOBA rolling p500.316
Observed weight60%
xwOBA
0.286 0.300 0.316 0.331 0.345
wOBA
0.299 0.315 0.332 0.350 0.366
ISO
0.102 0.116 0.131 0.147 0.160
K%
20.6% 21.8% 23.1% 24.4% 25.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
29
Exit velocity87.0
35
Hard-hit%40.3%
56
xBA0.328
58
xSLG0.464
33
xwOBA0.315
59
BB%11.9%
84
Bat speed70.5
62
K%22.6%
48
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
34
Arm Strength91.8 · LF
41
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs-3.5 · LF
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.6 · LF
3
Bolts1.0 · LF
15
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
3
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
53
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.1% · rebadged research
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5% · rebadged research
37
Correct Decisions69.5% · rebadged research
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · borderline
13
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.239 · validated thin sample
99
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
48
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
17
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Collins, Isaac · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.315 2026-07-05: 0.3132026-07-06: 0.3092026-07-07: 0.3102026-07-08: 0.3102026-07-09: 0.3122026-07-10: 0.3122026-07-11: 0.3132026-07-12: 0.3182026-07-13: 0.3162026-07-14: 0.3152026-07-15: 0.3152026-07-16: 0.315 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

142 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Collins, Isaac · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsPull 18%Center field third: 64% of plotted batted ballsCenter 64%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 330 CF 410 RF 330 2026-03-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -8.02026-03-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA -29.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 57.2 / LA -54.02026-03-20 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 35.02026-03-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 78.9 / LA 15.02026-03-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA -33.02026-03-24 · field out · FC · popup · EV 55.5 / LA 77.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 78.6 / LA 65.02026-03-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA -24.02026-03-27 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -17.02026-03-28 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -36.02026-03-30 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 38.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 49.02026-04-01 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.9 / LA 16.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.1 / LA 42.02026-04-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 24.02026-04-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 110.6 / LA -2.02026-04-04 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA -2.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · popup · EV 79.9 / LA 67.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -8.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 58.02026-04-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 4.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 25.02026-04-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 75.3 / LA 20.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.3 / LA 59.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 56.02026-04-09 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 82.9 / LA 25.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.5 / LA 62.02026-04-10 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 68.7 / LA 45.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 21.02026-04-12 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA -8.02026-04-12 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -3.02026-04-12 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 4.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 33.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 38.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.2 / LA -30.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 89.9 / LA 23.02026-04-20 · single · FF · popup · EV 54.5 / LA 34.02026-04-20 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 6.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 5.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 63.9 / LA 39.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 40.0 / LA 21.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 72.6 / LA 58.02026-04-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 83.9 / LA 13.02026-04-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 11.02026-04-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 90.7 / LA 15.02026-04-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 79.0 / LA 19.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 37.02026-04-26 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.2 / LA 37.02026-04-28 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 30.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 6.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 43.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA -2.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 60.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA -18.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 110.4 / LA 8.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 23.02026-04-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -6.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · popup · EV 82.0 / LA 75.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.9 / LA 16.02026-05-01 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 72.2 / LA 55.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.8 / LA 19.02026-05-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 7.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 55.4 / LA -53.02026-05-03 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 11.02026-05-03 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 42.02026-05-03 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 17.02026-05-05 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 7.02026-05-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 10.02026-05-05 · home run · ST · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 21.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 45.0 / LA -65.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.4 / LA 21.02026-05-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -11.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 39.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · popup · EV 66.7 / LA 56.02026-05-08 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 85.1 / LA 13.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.5 / LA 60.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 19.02026-05-10 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA -39.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA -20.02026-05-12 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 20.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -8.02026-05-13 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA -10.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA 8.02026-05-13 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -22.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -16.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.7 / LA 65.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · popup · EV 65.8 / LA 68.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 77.1 / LA 27.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -14.02026-05-15 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 30.02026-05-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 84.6 / LA 19.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -7.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 109.4 / LA 15.02026-05-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 96.0 / LA 8.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 70.5 / LA -24.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.9 / LA -15.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 77.4 / LA 26.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 29.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.3 / LA 46.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 43.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 66.2 / LA 10.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.1 / LA -3.02026-05-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 11.02026-05-24 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 72.0 / LA 30.02026-05-24 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 14.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.2 / LA 74.02026-05-25 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -16.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 55.02026-05-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 76.1 / LA -7.02026-05-27 · field out · FS · popup · EV 68.6 / LA 64.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 8.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 23.02026-06-01 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 80.9 / LA 47.02026-06-01 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 69.8 / LA 31.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 34.02026-06-04 · sac bunt · SI · ground_ball · EV 27.3 / LA -10.02026-06-04 · single · FS · fly_ball · EV 69.0 / LA 37.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 43.02026-06-05 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 79.9 / LA 20.02026-06-05 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 38.02026-06-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -17.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 59.2 / LA -13.02026-06-07 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 38.02026-06-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 39.02026-06-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA -10.02026-06-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 34.02026-06-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 16.02026-06-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 41.02026-06-18 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 5.02026-06-18 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 78.0 / LA 35.02026-06-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 4.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.0 / LA 53.02026-06-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 33.02026-06-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 75.1 / LA -5.02026-06-24 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 65.8 / LA 31.02026-06-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA -1.02026-06-26 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA 0.02026-06-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -8.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 36.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 3.02026-06-30 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 20.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Collins, Isaac · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 51%51%Chase: 20%20%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.002
wOBA Δ+0.015
Sample327 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances438----
Home Runs10----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3170.258 to 0.368+/- 0.055
ISO0.1260.084 to 0.213+/- 0.064
Barrel%3.0%1.3% to 4.8%+/- 1.7%
Hard-Hit%38.7%29.7% to 45.7%+/- 8.0%
K%22.6%19.5% to 28.0%+/- 4.2%
BB%10.5%7.1% to 13.2%+/- 3.0%
BABIP0.3210.287 to 0.378+/- 0.045
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

175 career PA

xwOBA0.206
K%15.3%
BB%7.8%
Barrel2.0%
vs RHP

331 career PA

xwOBA0.211
K%15.5%
BB%8.7%
Barrel2.1%