Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026

Springer, George

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.335 xwOBA
Range
0.290 to 0.384
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Impact slugger Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
48
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
54
Speed3 metrics
20
Plate skills10 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.334
xwOBA current pace0.305
xwOBA rolling p500.317
Observed weight59%
xwOBA
0.289 0.303 0.317 0.332 0.345
wOBA
0.328 0.344 0.363 0.381 0.398
ISO
0.153 0.167 0.183 0.198 0.212
K%
17.6% 18.8% 20.0% 21.3% 22.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
71
Exit velocity88.6
55
Hard-hit%39.3%
50
xBA0.294
24
xSLG0.485
40
xwOBA0.305
47 -28 vs proj
BB%10.3%
70
Bat speed70.2
58
K%19.6%
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · DH
14
SB Success Rate60.0% · DH
11
Sprint Speed26.9 · DH
37
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.8% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.4% · rebadged research
82
Correct Decisions72.0% · rebadged research
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
42
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
39
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
31
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
37
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
32
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.320 · validated
98
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Springer, George · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.305 2026-07-06: 0.3022026-07-07: 0.3022026-07-08: 0.3022026-07-09: 0.3022026-07-10: 0.3052026-07-11: 0.3052026-07-12: 0.3042026-07-13: 0.3052026-07-14: 0.3052026-07-15: 0.3052026-07-16: 0.3052026-07-17: 0.305 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

George Springer's tools (77) outpace production (79) by -2 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low
+13.7° Current 2° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

154 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Springer, George · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsPull 19%Center field third: 71% of plotted batted ballsCenter 71%Right field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsOppo 10% LF 328 CF 400 RF 328 2026-03-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -1.02026-03-15 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 78.8 / LA 21.02026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 20.02026-03-16 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 27.02026-03-16 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 19.02026-03-18 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 6.02026-03-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 49.1 / LA -55.02026-03-19 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 28.02026-03-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 111.5 / LA 14.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 28.02026-03-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 64.6 / LA -11.02026-03-22 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 27.02026-03-22 · field out · CH · popup · EV 90.3 / LA 71.02026-03-22 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 11.02026-03-27 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 81.4 / LA 52.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 98.9 / LA 77.02026-03-27 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -8.02026-03-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 5.02026-03-28 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 103.9 / LA 19.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · popup · EV 64.6 / LA 77.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.7 / LA 84.02026-03-29 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 38.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 21.02026-03-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -24.02026-03-30 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 5.02026-03-30 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 25.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 61.2 / LA 3.02026-03-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA -2.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · popup · EV 84.2 / LA 82.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.9 / LA 51.02026-04-03 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 9.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · popup · EV 80.7 / LA 79.02026-04-03 · field error · ST · ground_ball · EV 68.2 / LA -3.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 52.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -33.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 26.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA -23.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 75.6 / LA 47.02026-04-05 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 86.7 / LA 11.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 45.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 39.02026-04-07 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 99.9 / LA 20.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 58.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA -18.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.2 / LA 48.02026-04-08 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 24.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 8.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA -3.02026-04-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 0.02026-04-10 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 2.02026-04-10 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA -23.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 45.02026-04-10 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 80.1 / LA 23.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 65.1 / LA -33.02026-04-29 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 89.7 / LA 15.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.1 / LA 44.02026-04-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 10.02026-04-30 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 6.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 48.0 / LA -3.02026-05-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 108.1 / LA -5.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 76.2 / LA 51.02026-05-01 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA -16.02026-05-01 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 27.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.2 / LA -12.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 22.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.4 / LA -27.02026-05-05 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 2.02026-05-05 · double play · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 28.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 74.9 / LA 12.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -4.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 61.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 87.9 / LA -17.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 29.02026-05-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA -16.02026-05-09 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 86.1 / LA 21.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · popup · EV 70.5 / LA 55.02026-05-09 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 33.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · popup · EV 67.4 / LA 61.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -18.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.3 / LA -37.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 82.6 / LA 83.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 53.02026-05-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 45.4 / LA -72.02026-05-12 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 3.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 26.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · popup · EV 72.4 / LA 54.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 62.5 / LA -47.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 23.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 79.3 / LA -36.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 36.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 6.02026-05-15 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 93.2 / LA -2.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA -3.02026-05-16 · field out · FC · popup · EV 78.0 / LA 73.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.6 / LA -13.02026-05-18 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 12.02026-05-18 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 52.3 / LA 10.02026-05-18 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 36.02026-05-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.0 / LA 7.02026-05-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 44.1 / LA -12.02026-05-19 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 54.4 / LA -24.02026-05-19 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 89.7 / LA 7.02026-05-20 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -9.02026-05-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 76.0 / LA 32.02026-05-20 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA -20.02026-05-21 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 30.02026-05-21 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -3.02026-05-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 19.02026-05-23 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 25.02026-05-23 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 18.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA -7.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA -38.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.0 / LA -5.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 48.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · popup · EV 90.5 / LA 61.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 26.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 28.02026-05-25 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 87.9 / LA 33.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.7 / LA -60.02026-05-26 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 78.7 / LA 15.02026-05-26 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 94.2 / LA 10.02026-05-26 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 83.7 / LA 19.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 26.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.7 / LA -36.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 0.02026-06-04 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 96.3 / LA 20.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -17.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · popup · EV 72.7 / LA 57.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.7 / LA 2.02026-06-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 28.02026-06-05 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 109.0 / LA 15.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -21.02026-06-05 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 5.02026-06-07 · field out · SL · popup · EV 96.8 / LA 61.02026-06-07 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 28.02026-06-07 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 21.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.8 / LA 61.02026-06-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 2.02026-06-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA -3.02026-06-18 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 25.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 31.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 1.02026-06-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.6 / LA -27.02026-06-20 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 82.6 / LA 17.02026-06-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 36.02026-06-22 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 4.02026-06-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -13.02026-06-24 · double play · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 26.02026-06-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 80.4 / LA 44.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 57.02026-06-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 67.9 / LA -12.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -30.02026-06-30 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 63.9 / LA -52.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA -11.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Springer, George · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 73.6 mph Hard swing rate 39% Whiff / swing 21% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Springer, George · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 24%24%Whiff: 21%21%Zone contact: 89%89%Contact: 79%79%Hard hit: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-37 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.030
wOBA Δ+0.027
Sample312 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances605----
Home Runs24----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3350.290 to 0.384+/- 0.047
ISO0.1770.129 to 0.247+/- 0.059
Barrel%7.0%5.2% to 9.7%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%39.9%34.8% to 47.5%+/- 6.3%
K%20.9%16.9% to 25.1%+/- 4.1%
BB%9.7%7.4% to 12.3%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.2850.255 to 0.335+/- 0.040
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1722 career PA

xwOBA0.282
K%17.7%
BB%10.2%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHP

4826 career PA

xwOBA0.302
K%16.9%
BB%7.7%
Barrel6.9%